Our NBA player prop projections are back for tonight’s primetime matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Detroit Pistons, and the model has already identified several standout opportunities.
After breaking down the data and comparing our projections with the current market lines, we’ve pinpointed the spots offering the strongest betting value.
These Warriors vs. Pistons predictions aren’t based on gut instinct — they’re driven by the numbers.
If you’re building your betting card, these are the model’s top NBA picks for Friday, March 20.
Warriors vs Pistons computer picks for March 20
 Warriors |
 Pistons |
|---|---|
| Porziņģis u17.5 points -120 |
Duren u23.5 points -112 |
| Green o5.5 rebounds +105 |
LeVert u3.5 assists -105 |
| Podziemski o1.5 3-pointers -140 |
Thompson o6.5 rebounds +105 |
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Warriors computer picks
Kristaps Porziņģis Under 17.5 points (-120)
Projection: 16.1 points
The Golden State Warriors have been the ninth-lowest scoring road offense this season and have also played at the third-slowest pace among visiting teams over their last five games.
That combination could limit scoring opportunities for Kristaps Porzingis, supporting the Under on his 17.5-point line—a number he’s fallen short of in eight of his last 10 games.
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Draymond Green Over 5.5 rebounds (+105)
Projection: 6.2 rebounds
The Warriors have been the top offensive rebounding team on the road over their last five games, creating added opportunities on the glass.
That should benefit Draymond Green, who has gone Over his 5.5 rebound line in six of his last 10 games.
Brandin Podziemski Over 1.5 3-pointers (-140)
Projection: 2.2 3-pointers
Brandin Podziemski has cleared the 1.5 made threes line in six of his last 10 games largely due to his evolving role within the Warriors’ offense.
If the Warriors continue to draw help defenders from the Detroit Pistons and kick the ball out, he’ll be in position to capitalize and knock down multiple threes once again.
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Pistons computer picks
Jalen Duren Under 23.5 points (-112)
Projection: 20.0 points
The Pistons could see fewer possessions in this matchup, facing one of the league’s slowest-paced road offenses in the Warriors over the last five games.
That reduced tempo may limit Jalen Duren’s chances to pile up stats, making the Over a tougher ask tonight.
Caris LeVert Under 3.5 assists (+105)
Projection: 3.4 assists
The Pistons are likely to see fewer possessions in this matchup, facing one of the league’s slowest-paced road offenses in the Warriors over the last five games.
That reduced tempo could limit Caris LeVert’s playmaking opportunities, aligning with the Under on his 3.5 assist line—a number he’s fallen short of in nine of his last 10 games.
Ausar Thompson Over 6.5 rebounds (+105)
Projection: 6.5 rebounds
Offensive rebounds extend possessions and create extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Pistons have led the league with 14.5 offensive boards per game over their last 15 contests.
That added volume should benefit Ausar Thompson, who has gone Over his 6.5 rebound line in four of his last 10 games.
How to watch Warriors vs Pistons tonight
| Location | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Friday, March 20, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Bay Area, Detroit SportsNet |
Not intended for use in MA.
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