Just when you thought things couldn’t get worse for the Toronto Raptors, they go out and lose to the Houston Rockets as 7.5-point NBA betting favorites.
So now, it’s the Raptors who own the NBA’s longest losing streak, with their skid hitting nine games, and on deck for Toronto is one of the best teams in the Western Conference—the Denver Nuggets. Can the Raps end their slide as 2-point home underdogs?
Find out with our NBA free picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Rockets on Wednesday, March 24, with tipoff scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Denver Nuggets at Toronto Raptors betting preview
Injuries
Nuggets: Monte Morris PG (Questionable), Greg Whittington SF Questionable), Gary Harris SG (Out).
Raptors: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the Nuggets' last four road games and is 5-0 in the Raptors' last five home games against a team with a winning road record. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Raptors.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDenver hit TwinSpires' odds board as 1-point chalk and is out to -3 as of 4:30 p.m. ET. The Nuggets are landing 78 percent of spread tickets and 81 percent of spread money. The total moved from 224 to 223.5, with the Over taking 65 percent of bets/59 percent of dollars.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Yes, the Raptors still seemingly haven’t recovered from their COVID outbreak, and Monday’s loss to Houston might be the low point, when they couldn’t get anything going against a team that had lost 20 consecutive basketball games. Toronto shot just 25 percent from 3-point range and allowed the Association’s worst offense to dominate in every fashion in an eventual 117-99 loss. Once again, in a game where the Raps were 7.5-point favorites.
That has been the troubling part about this losing skid: The Raptors have been betting favorites of 6.5-or-more points in four of those games and are just 3-6 ATS in that stretch. Defense has been the Raps’ biggest problem during this maddening streak, as Toronto ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive rating in the month of March and now faces one of the league’s best offenses in the Nuggets.
Led by MVP candidate Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets have won nine of their last 11 games. The Joker’s incredible playmaking and court vision has Denver ranked fourth in scoring, fifth in offensive rating, and sixth in true shooting percentage.
The Nuggets will also have a big edge on the perimeter and the boards in this matchup. Denver is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, while Toronto’s perimeter defense is poor at best. On the glass, the Nuggets rank sixth in rebounding percentage, with the Raptors sitting 27th.
The Nuggets are playing the second half of a back-to-back, but that’s not enough to have any faith in the Raptors covering this number. On top of that, the Raptors look like a frustrated bunch, with names being thrown around in trade rumors before Thursday’s deadline. Bet the Nuggets and don’t look back.
PREDICTION: Nuggets -2 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Raptors' defense has been awful during this losing streak, but the offense hasn’t been much better. The majority of Toronto’s starters have been back for four games now, and in that stretch, they are putting up just 107 points per game—shooting 43.5 percent from the field.
Next, they’ll face an underrated Denver defense that ranks ninth in opponent scoring, giving up 110.4 points per game, and defends the perimeter well, which is where the Raptors do a large chunk of their shooting. The Nuggets have also allowed 106 points or fewer in six of their last nine games.
With the Under trending in this matchup, hopping on board seems like the right side of the total to be on.
PREDICTION: Under 223.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Michael Porter Jr. has been a real weapon for the Nuggets this season, hitting 41.5 percent of his 5.5 3-point attempts per game, and while he is hasn’t been draining as many shots from deep of late, that may just provide us with some nice value in this matchup.
Porter is hitting just 38.1 percent of his shots from beyond the arc over his last four games but has still hit two or more trays in 11 of his last 13 contests. Going up against a Raptors’ D that allows opponents to shoot nearly 39 percent from long range, there’s a lot to like with Porter’s made threes prop.
PREDICTION: Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 Made Threes (+115)
Nuggets vs Raptors betting card
- Nuggets -2 (-110)
- Under 223.5 (-110)
- Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 Made Threes (+115)
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