The Memphis Grizzlies hit the road tonight to visit the NBA’s best Oklahoma City Thunder at the Paycom Center.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander cooked Memphis earlier this season, but my Grizzlies vs Thunder predictions are eyeing him to stay under tonight’s lofty 33.5 point total.
Read more in my NBA picks for Monday, December 22.
Grizzlies vs Thunder prediction
Grizzlies vs Thunder best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 points (-110)
It’s no secret that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is arguably the brightest superstar in the Association, and the No. 1 reason the Oklahoma City Thunder lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy last season. The reigning MVP is having another electrifying campaign, sitting second in the NBA with 32.5 points per game.
That being said, his total is 32.5, and while he’s more than capable of surpassing that number, recent trends don't favor the Over. Gilgeous-Alexander has cashed the Under in four of his last five contests.
SGA dropped 33 on the Memphis Grizzlies in November, but he hasn’t had a ton of massive games lately. The guard is also averaging 32.4 PPG at home in 2025-26 – a tad below tonight’s total.
Will he make an impact? Of course. But I see a lot more value in the Under here.
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Grizzlies vs Thunder same-game parlay
Santi Aldama had a career night in his last game, balling out for 37 points in 35 minutes of action. He’s now hit the Over in points in three of his last five, also putting up 22 points in back-to-back games earlier this month. With Ja Morant still out, there’s more opportunity for the big man to have the rock in his hands.
Jalen Williams has only been back for nine games, but he’s already making an impact. The wing is averaging 17.6 points while shooting a very solid 40% from downtown. He’s drained 1.1 triples on 2.8 attempts per night.
Grizzlies vs Thunder SGP
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 points
- Santi Aldama Over 14.5 points
- Jalen Williams Over 1.5 threes
Our "from downtown" SGP: Grizzled Vets
OKC has lost two of its last three. It's not as sharp at the moment. The Thunder also beat the Grizzlies by 14 points in November.
Grizzlies vs Thunder SGP
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 points
- Santi Aldama Over 14.5 points
- Jalen Williams Over 1.5 threes
- Grizzlies +16
Grizzlies vs Thunder odds
- Spread: Grizzlies XX | Thunder XX
- Moneyline: Grizzlies XX | Thunder XX
- Over/Under: Over XXX | Under XXX
Grizzlies vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 76 games (+24.75 Units / 6% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Thunder.
How to watch Grizzlies vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Monday, December 22, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Grizzlies vs Thunder latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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