The Los Angeles Clippers have their backs against a literal and figurative wall in Game 6 of their quarterfinal set with the Denver Nuggets.
Los Angeles is down 3-2 but returns to the Intuit Dome tonight, hoping to get a boost from the home crowd and the now-infamous “Wall” of 51 rows of frenzied fans behind the basket.
I break down the matchups and my favorite NBA picks for Nuggets vs. Clippers on Thursday, May 1.
Best Nuggets vs Clippers props
Dunn o4.5 assists + rebounds (-115)
Murray o5.5 assists (-115)- Gordon 15+ points & 5+ rebounds (+210)
Nuggets vs Clippers player props for May 1
Kris Dunn Over 4.5 assists + rebounds (-115 at bet365)
I bet this same combo prop in Game 5 and Kris Dunn transformed from scrappy glue guy to go-to scorer. Go figure.
The Los Angeles Clippers guard dropped 15 points on 6-of-7 shooting, but only dished out two assists and failed to record a single rebound after pulling down a total of 23 boards in the first four games.
Before that Game 5 result, Dunn had recorded more than five rebounds + assists in each of the three games prior.
However, his poor shooting had the Denver Nuggets' defense sagging off and daring him to shoot. He took that dare and made the Nuggets pay in Game 5.
With Denver now having to respect Dunn’s stroke, the defense will play the Clippers guard more aggressively, opening the floor for passing possibilities. Coach Tyronn Lue has also prioritized getting James Harden open on offense, making Dunn more of a playmaker than a scorer.
Dunn is averaging 3.4 potential assists in the series, and his player projections for Game 6 range from 2.8 to 3.7 dimes. The rebounding forecasts sit between 3.2 and 3.5 boards.
Even on the low end of these models, Dunn is projected for six combo stats.
Jamal Murray Over 5.5 assists (-115 at bet365)
After being kept in check for the first four games of this series, Nuggets star guard Jamal Murray finally had one of his classic postseason explosions. Murray scored 43 points in Game 5, with the bulk of those buckets coming from beyond the arc (8-for-14).
Clippers coach Tyronn Lue talked about protecting the perimeter after that Game 5 barrage, which should have Los Angeles getting its heels above the arc on defense and trying to take away any clean looks Murray has from long range.
“The three-point line is going to be the most important thing,” Lue told reporters after the loss. “We got to make sure we are taking care of that, which we didn’t do a good job of tonight. But going back home, Intuit will be rocking. We’ll be fine.”
Extra perimeter pressure means Murray is putting the ball on the floor and looking to attack the middle of the L.A. defense. That collapses the coverage and opens up opportunities for playmaking, either in kick-outs to wing shooters or drop-downs to the dunker spot.
Even though he fired up 26 shots on Tuesday, Murray still dished out seven assists and has recorded six or more dimes in four of the first five games versus the Clippers. Advanced stats also show Murray generating 8.8 potential assists per contest in this series.
Game 6 projections are far from bullish on Murray’s assist results, ranging from 5.6 to 6.4. But given his passing prowess and Los Angeles’s adjustments on defense, I believe the ceiling is higher for his assists tonight.
Aaron Gordon 15+ points & 5+ rebounds (+210 at bet365)
Aaron Gordon has had a series to remember, and Round 1 isn’t even over yet.
From a crazy game-winning putback to a solid stat line of 18.2 points and 6.2 rebounds, the Nuggets’ power forward is a big reason Denver is on the brink of a series victory.
If the Nuggets want to deliver that knockout blow in L.A., they’ll need another stellar showing from Gordon tonight. And based on Game 6 player projections, they’re going to get it.
Game models range between 14 and 17 points, along with rebounding forecasts between five and eight boards. My numbers boil down to close to 16.5 points and 6.3 rebounds, and upward market movement on his Over/Under points and rebounding totals would indicate that I’m on to something.
Gordon's points + rebounds combo prop is at 19.5 (Over -115), but you can ask for a very similar stat line — albeit a lot more specific — and get a +210 return on a same-game parlay of 15+ points and 5+ rebounds from the Nuggets forward in Game 6.
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