Game 4 between Oklahoma City and Phoenix sets up as a high-leverage spot, and our model is zeroing in on player props where usage, pace, and matchup trends create value.
Start with our full NBA player prop projections to understand where the numbers land, then layer in our Thunder vs. Suns predictions and broader NBA picks to round out your card before tip on Monday, April 27.
Thunder vs Suns computer picks for Game 4
 Thunder |
 Suns |
|---|---|
| Gilgeous-Alexander u7.5 assists -129 |
Green o2.5 threes +119 |
| Caruso o1.5 asissts -140 |
Brooks o1.5 assists +105 |
| Holmgren u17.5 points -132 |
Booker o1.5 threes -140 |
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Thunder Game 4 computer picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 7.5 assists (-129)
Projection: 6.36 assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to carry the scoring load, and that has naturally capped his assist ceiling. Oklahoma City is comfortable letting him hunt his own shot in half-court sets, especially late in games.
Phoenix has also done a decent job staying home on shooters, forcing SGA into tougher reads. With fewer easy kick-out opportunities, this projects closer to a six-assist night than a spike performance.
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Alex Caruso Over 1.5 assists (-140)
Projection:2.23 assists
Alex Caruso doesn’t need heavy usage to clear this number. His minutes are steady, and he’s often involved in quick swing passes and secondary actions when the defense collapses on Gilgeous-Alexander.
Phoenix’s defensive rotations have opened up simple passing lanes on the perimeter, which plays right into Caruso’s role. Two dimes is a low bar given his involvement and the expected pace.
Chet Holmgren Under 17.5 points (-132)
Projection: 16.34 points
Chet Holmgren has had stretches of efficiency, but the volume hasn’t been there consistently. Oklahoma City is spreading touches across multiple options, and Holmgren’s scoring often depends on clean looks rather than forced attempts.
Phoenix has also been physical with him inside, making post touches tougher to convert. If he doesn’t get to the line frequently, this number becomes difficult to reach.
Suns Game 4 computer picks
Jalen Green Over 2.5 threes (+119)
Projection: 2.92 threes
Jalen Green is getting the green light from deep, and the volume is what matters here. Oklahoma City’s defense is built to protect the paint first, which leaves space on the perimeter for confident shooters.
Green has been willing to fire off the catch and off the dribble, and with his minutes secure, he should have enough attempts to clear this number if he hits at even an average clip.
Dillon Brooks Over 1.5 assists (+105)
Projection: 1.99 assists
Dillon Brooks isn’t a primary playmaker, but he’s been active enough within the flow to pick up assists. When Phoenix runs actions through its stars, Brooks benefits from simple reads and quick passes after defensive attention shifts.
Oklahoma City’s help defense can be aggressive, which creates easy dish opportunities. Two dimes are well within reach if he maintains his usual minutes and touches.
Devin Booker Over 1.5 threes (-140)
Projection: 2.28 threes
Devin Booker remains the focal point of Phoenix’s offense, and his perimeter shooting volume stays high regardless of defensive looks. Oklahoma City has mixed coverages, but Booker is comfortable creating space off the dribble or working off screens.
With his minutes pushing into the high 30s in a must-win setting, the attempts should be there to clear this number without needing an outlier shooting night.
How to watch Thunder vs Suns Game 4
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Monday, April 27, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Not intended for use in MA.
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