Nuggets vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Denver Gets Outclassed in Milwaukee

Denver continues to do what is most important in the NBA, win, but the Nuggets have failed to cover the spread of late.

Facing an opponent as good as Milwaukee, that narrow margin of error could prove costly for the Nuggets, and if they aren’t careful that could prove costly in the standings before much longer.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Nuggets at the Bucks on January 30, with tip set for 7:00 p.m. ET.

Nuggets vs Bucks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line has not moved much since initially opening Saturday night with the Bucks favored by seven points. It has spent brief moments at -6.0 but stabilized at -6.5 early Sunday afternoon.

The total saw much more movement, opening at 226.5 before spiking all the way to 233 with consistent ticks upward all Sunday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

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Nuggets vs Bucks predictions

• Prediction: Bucks -6.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 233 (-110)
• Best bet: Bucks -6.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 1/30/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Nuggets vs Bucks game info

• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Sunday, January 30, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BSWI, ALT, TSN

Nuggets vs Bucks betting preview

Injuries

Nuggets: Aaron Gordon PF (Questionable), DeMarcus Cousins C (Questionable), Will Barton SG (Probable).
Bucks: Rodney Hood SG (Probable), George Hill PG (Doubtful), Lindell Wigginton PG (Out), Brook Lopez C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Nuggets are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Bucks.

Nuggets vs Bucks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

It would not be fair to ask what is wrong with the Nuggets when they have won four straight games, but for our concerns, Denver has been routinely falling short of expectations of late, covering the spread just once in the last two weeks.

What should most worry the Nuggets about this stretch, though, is that it has largely come against lesser opponents. Three of those seven games came against teams well outside the playoff picture with a fourth against the play-in hopeful Clippers. Furthermore, Nikola Jokic played in all seven games.

Yet the Nuggets fell short of the spread by an average of 7.4 points in those five ATS losses in this stretch. Two of those losses indeed came against two of the clear playoff teams in the stretch, both outright losses, as well, and Denver managed only a push against the third worthwhile foe of late.

Milwaukee is clearly a worthwhile foe, especially when it has all three of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton available, as all three should be tonight. Just two days ago, they combined for 82 points on 51.9% shooting.

Until proven otherwise in the postseason, the Bucks should be considered the class of the Eastern Conference, and until proven otherwise with a few games exceeding expectations, the Nuggets are currently a team winning only when it should and hardly competing when it is an underdog. That combination could turn this into a rout in Milwaukee.

Prediction: Bucks -6.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Neither of these teams has a specific Over/Under trend to focus on, both capable of offensive explosions — Denver ranks No. 3 in the league in offensive rating in January, per statmuse.com, with Milwaukee at No. 5 — while employing slightly better than average defenses — No. 12 and No. 14, respectively.

But something about this number rising so far and so quickly rubs this handicapper the wrong way. A 6.5-point jump is more than would be seen from an unexpected injury clearance, and there isn’t even one possibly afoot here, no offense to Aaron Gordon. That is a jump based on some professional bettors’ math.

They are better at this than yours truly, admittedly so. There is a reason professional bettors work from the shadows and yours truly relies on a byline here to fund some of his bankroll. Nonetheless, sometimes steam gets carried away, and this feels like that moment.

Their initial math was undoubtedly correct, but it is distinctly possible the move got carried away and this total ended up higher than it should have. Such happens in these endeavors.

At this number, the Bucks should be expected to score 120 points, a number they have reached just three times in their last 10 games, despite facing six teams that have January defensive ratings worse than the Nuggets.

Prediction: Under 233 (-110)

Best bet

In the grand scheme of things, Denver still deserves credit. A four-game winning streak matters, and Jokic is once again putting together one of the greatest individual seasons of all time. But in the betting scheme of things, the Nuggets are struggling.

Going on the road against an Eastern power with one of the few players who can match Jokic’s brilliance, those struggles could quickly become exacerbated. Of late, when Denver has faced such a challenge, it has simply wilted. The Nuggets have not covered the spread against a playoff team since beating the Lakers on Jan. 15. That day, Los Angeles did have LeBron James, but it also started Dwight Howard in place of Anthony Davis.

In 2022, that should hardly qualify a team as a playoff team.

In other words, it’s been a long while since Denver exceeded expectations against a quality opponent. That trend overrules any win-loss credit tonight.

Pick: Bucks -6.5 (-110)

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