Mavericks vs Knicks Picks and Predictions: Knicks Can't Stop Doncic

Luka Doncic has shown no mercy to opposing defenses this season, so there's little reason to think he won't abuse New York's smaller, defensively inept backcourt. See why we're backing more magic from the Mavs phenom with our NBA picks.

Malcolm R. Banks - Contributor at
Malcolm R. Banks • Contributor
Dec 3, 2022 • 08:40 ET • 4 min read
Luka Doncic Dallas Mavericks
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Knicks enter this matchup against the Dallas Mavericks after a crushing 109-103 defeat on Wednesday to the Milwaukee Bucks. Although the effort was valiant, the force of Giannis Antetokounmpo was too much to handle for a Knicks team still searching for a rhythm. 

Much like New York, Dallas is searching for its groove and enters off a disappointing loss to the Detroit Pistons. Tonight's matchup will be an opportunity for both teams to get back in the win column, but it won't be easy. Look for Luka Don?i? to try and take control of this game early and guide the Mavericks to a victory.

Find out the best bet with our free NBA picks and predictions for the Mavericks vs. Knicks on Saturday, December 3.

Mavericks vs Knicks best odds

Mavericks vs Knicks picks and predictions

Luka Doncic knows how to put the ball in the basket more effortlessly than arguably anyone else. Seriously, when looking at what he's been able to do this season, it's scary to think he's only 23 years old. With New York being tonight’s opponent, there's no good reason to doubt his ability to have another monster game. 

Historically, Doncic has done well against the Knicks, just as he's done almost every other team in the NBA, and his ability as a fast starter separates him from the pack. 

In the first half of games, Doncic averages 18.3 points per game — the larger share of his NBA-leading 33.6 ppg. In his most recent game against the Detroit Pistons, Doncic scored 20 first-half points, and should similarly attack a New York defense that ranks a lowly 25th. 

The Knicks are surrendering the ninth-most points to point guards this season. New York also surrenders the eighth-most first-half points, which could spell significant trouble early in this matchup. I'm projecting this game to be close, allowing Doncic more opportunities to score down the stretch. 

The Knicks have a small backcourt, with Jalen Brunson (whom Doncic has battled in practice) and Quentin Grimes significantly smaller than Doncic. I'm banking on the Dallas superstar to continue his scoring dominance in this one.

My best bet: Luka Doncic to score over 31.5 points (-106)

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Mavericks vs Knicks spread analysis

This afternoon game should be a solid matchup, with the Mavericks a slight favorite. The line for this one opened up at -1.5 in favor of Dallas and hasn't moved since. For the season, the Knicks are 2-6-2 ATS at home, while the Mavericks have a 2-7 road mark. 

New York is still looking for a signature win. While Dallas' ceiling remains a question mark, it should be in the playoffs out West when the regular season concludes. Most of New York's victories this year have been against teams that don't anticipate winning much of anything. On the other hand, Dallas must play better on the road, and the spotty Knicks (4-6 home record) are a prime opportunity to pick up some momentum. 

While the Mavericks are still figuring out how all the pieces to their team fit, they are still a dangerous unit on a night-to-night basis, simply due to the influence Doncic possesses on the offensive side of the ball. 

The Mavericks average 110.1 points per game, which is 6.1 fewer than the 116.2 Knicks surrender. When Dallas scores over 116.2 this season, it boasts a 3-2 record against the spread. I like the Mavs’ chances to get hot this afternoon and cover the spread.

Mavericks vs Knicks Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for this afternoon's tipoff opened at 225 and has remained consistent across most sportsbooks. The Knicks bring a 12-10 Over/Under record into this matchup, hitting the Over in seven of their 10 home games. The Mavericks have a positive 13-8 Over/Under record and are 6-3 (O/U) outside of Dallas on the season. 

The Knicks are a decent team defending the 3-point line, holding opponents to 35.3%. They will have their hands full against Dallas, as they connect on 13.8 threes per game (fifth-best). With the Knicks' undersized backcourt of Brunson and Doncic, it's likely the Mavericks will be comfortable shooting from behind the arc in this one. The Knicks will look to attack the interior, with 74.1% of their baskets for the season coming from inside the arc. 

The Over is a very enticing play here. After a disappointing loss to the abysmal Detroit Pistons, Dallas will come out motivated to win a big game in New York. The Knicks don't possess any major difference-makers on the defensive front to slow down Doncic The Over is 10-1 in Mavericks' last 11 games following a straight-up loss. The Knicks similarly have hit the Over of late, going 5-1 in their last six home games.

Mavericks vs Knicks betting trend to know

Over is 5-0 in Mavericks’ last five when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Knicks.

Mavericks vs Knicks game info

Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Date: Saturday, December 3, 2022
Tip-off: 12:30 p.m. ET

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