The Dallas Mavericks enter play looking to stop the bleeding. They’ve lost Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to injury in recent weeks, and in turn, have dropped their last four games.
While the Memphis Grizzlies have endured plenty of injuries of their own, dropping three of their last four, my Mavericks vs Grizzlies predictions explain why this team should succeed at the rim and remain strong defensively without Ja Morant.
Let’s dig into tonight's game and hand out some NBA picks on Monday, January 6 before this 8 p.m. ET tip at FedExForum.
Mavericks vs Grizzlies prediction
My best bet
Grizzlies -5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Things just couldn’t be going any worse for the Dallas Mavericks, who developed into a well-rounded team after adding defense and interior scoring a season ago. After a great run in December, Luka Doncic tailed off and was subsequently shelved due to a nagging calf issue, and then just a few games later, Kyrie Irving was lost to a back injury.
We saw Dallas come out and hang 122 points on the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday in its first game since losing Irving, but it was hardly a clean performance. The Mavericks excelled on the glass and got to the free-throw line a whopping 30 times to inflate their scoring output, shooting just 43% from the field with a 27.3% success rate from outside.
The pace surely had something to do with the high score, and while this one promises much of the same with the Memphis Grizzlies up there in that category, we can’t ignore that this defense just had its worst efficiency rating in nearly a month.
The good news is the Grizzlies have been atrocious at scoring inside over the last two weeks, which should aid Dallas further inside – where it ranks fourth defensively over this span. The bad news is Memphis is sixth in 3-point shooting in those 14 days, according to Cleaning the Glass, and Dallas’ performance against the outside shot has dropped significantly since the injury to Doncic.
Memphis sits atop the league in rebounding rate, 15 spots ahead of Dallas, and it’s also continued to play defense quite well inside — an edge that’s only grown stronger since Zach Edey made his way back to the lineup.
While Desmond Bane is unlikely to play, joining Morant and Marcus Smart on the sideline, Memphis has a plethora of talented scorers hungry for minutes with the likes of Jaylen Wells and Jake LaRavia lighting it up from outside.
Dallas simply hasn’t shown anything defensively in recent games to invoke any sort of confidence, and on the other side of the ball, we can be sure the Grizzlies will make life incredibly difficult on an offense that has no choice but to take the ball inside without Doncic and Irving on the floor.
Expect the Mavericks’ issues to persist as they fall for a fifth straight game.
Mavericks vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Grizzlies -4.5
Scotty Pippen Jr. Over 1.5 threes
Klay Thompson Over 3.5 threes
Yes, the Mavericks should hunt down plenty of buckets inside, but as they continue to lean on Klay Thompson for increased minutes with injuries in the backcourt, we’ve got no choice but to bet on the veteran to do what he’s best at.
Thompson has now launched eight or more times from outside over the last three games and took 10 shots from the arc against the Cavaliers. In doing so, he’s now knocked down four or more triples in back-to-back contests, and he’ll certainly retain the volume in what should be a fast-paced game given both teams sit near the top of the league in that category.
The Grizzlies haven’t allowed a ton of threes in the last two weeks, but they have ranked just 24th in defending the shot, so that should amount to another big night for Thompson.
Dallas, as we noted, has had some troubles of its own in ranking 16th against the 3 over the last two weeks – bringing its strong number for the season nearly out of the top 10 – and Scotty Pippen Jr. is the best option as we look to attack that trend.
He’s shot a blistering 51.5% from outside in his last eight games, and with so many injuries in the backcourt, he should see increased run in a juicy matchup against a defense in disarray.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mavericks vs Grizzlies odds
Mavericks vs Grizzlies live odds
Mavericks vs Grizzlies opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +4.5 (-110) | Memphis -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas +155 | Memphis -185
- Over/Under: Over 237.5 (-110) | Under 237.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mavericks vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Memphis has gotten a lot of love here, with the line moving as far as six points before settling back down at five on Monday morning.
- The Grizzlies make up 57% of the tickets and 76% of the money wagered on the spread.
- It’s been one-way traffic with the total, which took a nosedive to 232 just hours after opening at 237.5 on Sunday night. It’s since dipped another half-point.
- The Under has accounted for 52% of the bets and a whopping 96% of the handle on the total.
Mavericks vs Grizzlies trend
The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 4Q Spread in 32 of their last 43 away games (+20.20 Units / 40% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Mavericks vs Grizzlies
| Location: | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Monday, 1-6-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KFAA, FanDuel Sports Network - Southeast - Memphis |
Mavericks vs Grizzlies latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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