Something’s got to give in matchup between two teams on skids.
It’s the moveable object against the resistible force when the Mavericks visit the Grizzlies. Dallas and Memphis are two of the three worst teams in the Western Conference and are riding three (Dallas) and four (Memphis) game losing streaks.
The Mavs are plagued by injury, while the Grizz have locker room chemistry woes. Still, not all losing streaks are created equal.
Memphis has yet to lose to a team with a record below .500, and my Mavericks vs. Grizzlies predictions and free NBA picks is that Dallas won’t be the first to beat them.
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Mavericks vs Grizzlies prediction
Mavericks vs Grizzlies best bet: Memphis -4.5 (-110)
The Dallas Mavericks have struggled this season, with six losses in their first eight games. Most recently, Dallas lost at home—it’s only home game in a five-game stretch—to the lowly New Orleans Pelicans. Rookie Cooper Flagg made news by pointing out that he’s already lost more in the NBA (2-6) than he did in college (35-4) and high school (77-4).
The Mavs are without Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II. Plus, the calf injury that was supposed to keep Anthony Davis out two games has stretched to three—all Dallas losses—and he’s doubtful for the Memphis game.
Things aren’t much better in Memphis, although the wounds have been more self-inflicted. The team is not gelling with head coach Tuomas Iisalo, and a four-game losing streak has the team at 3-6 on the year.
Iiasalo challenged star guard Ja Morant in a fiery locker room exchange, and Morant’s criticism of the coaching staff that followed led to a one-game suspension. Trade speculation is swirling around Morant, who said his joy is gone. He’s made just 11 of his last 35 shots and one of his last 11 three-pointers.
He’s not the only Grizzlies player struggling, Jaren Jackson Jr. is as well. He had just three first-half shot attempts against Detroit and one against Houston. He’s averaging less than 12 shots a game, his fewest in five years.
The Jackson issue appears to be solvable. Iisalo said getting Jackson the ball is “definitely” a priority, and Jackson promised to be more aggressive. That’s good news for a team that hasn’t lost to a team with a record below .500 yet this season.
They aren’t likely to start with Dallas in town. Look for Memphis to cover the 4.5 point spread.
Mavericks vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
The Over looks unlikely on the surface. Both teams have gone under in four of their last five games. However, Dallas has the fourth fastest pace in the NBA, Memphis the sixth. The four teams that have taken Dallas under include Houston (28th), New Orleans (27th) and OKC (26th). Memphis has faced Houston, the Lakers (18th) and Phoenix (20th).
Facing each other should be a jailbreak for both teams.
The bigger risk may be the third leg, since we’re trusting coach and player that things are going to change. Getting Jackson involved seems like it has to be a priority for the team. So even though he hasn’t topped 18.5 in three of his last five, we look for the faster pace and increased aggression to get him to eat.
Mavericks vs Grizzlies SGP
- Grizzlies -4.5
- Over 232
- Jaren Jackson Over 18.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Morant motivated to get moving
The speculation on Morant’s new home and potential two and three-team trade packages to get it done has already started. Player and team are clearly not on the same page, and the situation is rapidly deteriorating past saving.
That means just one thing—time to showcase him for a deal. If the team is focusing on getting Jackson the ball inside, that should help open things up for Morant on the perimeter, and a regression to the mean is long overdue.
Look for his shots to increase and start falling.
Mavericks vs Grizzlies SGP
- Grizzlies -4.5
- Over 232
- Jaren Jackson Over 18.5 points
- Ja Morant Over 23.5 points
Mavericks vs Grizzlies odds
- Spread: Dallas +4.5 (-110) | Memphis -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas +150 | Memphis -180
- Over/Under: Over 232 (-110) | Under 232 (-110)
Mavericks vs Grizzlies betting trend to know
The Grizzlies have won 11 of their last 12 home games against Western Conference foes with a losing record. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Mavericks vs Grizzlies
| Location | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date | Friday, November 7, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KFAA, FDSN SE-MEM |
Mavericks vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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