Mavericks vs Clippers Predictions, Picks, Odds for Tonight’s NBA Playoff Game

James Harden was the key to L.A.'s Game 1 victory with 28 points and eight assists, but with Kawhi potentially returning and Dallas in need of a bounceback win, he may not have the same luck in Game 2.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Apr 23, 2024 • 17:58 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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In a rough start to Round 1, NBA playoff underdogs are just 2-9 outright and 5-6 ATS heading into tonight's slate. Prime among these are the Los Angeles Clippers, who shut down the Dallas Mavericks for a 109-97 victory in Game 1 on Sunday — despite not having star Kawhi Leonard in action.

As I make my Game 2 Mavericks vs. Clippers predictions and NBA picks, the Clippers remain 2.5-point home pups tonight, with Leonard still a game-time decision. 

Mavericks vs Clippers predictions

My best bet
James Harden Under 19.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

The status of Kawhi Leonard slowed the rollout of Los Angeles Clippers odds for Game 2, with those markets finally hitting the board late Monday afternoon. 

Leonard did participate in practice on Monday, in limited contact, and the team will reassess closer to tonight’s 10 p.m. ET tipoff. The line movement on the point spread would indicate the market thinks he’ll suit up, with Los Angeles going from +3 to +1.5 overnight. 

With Kawhi out for Game 1, veteran guard James Harden stepped up in a big way. He knocked down 8 of 17 shots (6 for 11 on 3-pointers) and finished with 28 points in the victory. 

Not only was this Harden’s biggest scoring output since putting up 29 points against Milwaukee on March 4 but it tied his third-most shot attempts of the entire season (the best two — 23 and 18 FGAs — also coming with Leonard sidelined). 

Before the Game 1 effort (in which his scoring total was 18.5 O/U), Harden had topped 20 points only three times in the 17 games between those scoring outbursts and averaged 16.6 points on 11.4 field goal attempts per outing.

Kawhi in or Kawahi out, Dallas’ defense will be much more attentive to Harden in Game 2, especially when it comes to getting its heels above the 3-point arc and not letting The Beard heat up from distance. It’s unlikely Harden will see the same volume of shots, regardless of L.A.’s rotation.

Player projections for Harden bounce between 15.8 and 17.5 points for Tuesday’s tilt, with my number coming out to 16.9 points. It should be noted that most of these forecasts do factor in Leonard as active.

Harden’s NBA prop odds have his scoring total at 19.5 points for Game 2 (his tallest total in a long, long time). Some sharper operators have already moved the juice for Under 19.5 from -106 to -135 — another indication the betting markets are leaning toward a Leonard return.

However, other shops have been slower to adjust, and you can still find Harden Under 19.5 points as low as -110 on Tuesday morning. Given my projection of 16.9 points from the Clips’ sharp-shooting guard, the Under 19.5 should be priced as high as -217.

Betting Harden to go Under his scoring total is never comfortable (especially after his Game 1 performance) and this bet could blow up in our faces should Kawhi take a seat, but there’s value for the taking, given forecasts and market movement.

Mavericks vs Clippers same-game parlay (SGP)

James Harden Under 19.5 points

Kyrie Irving Over 4.5 assists

Under 216

Harden is an inconsistent scorer in his golden years and won’t get the same touches or clean looks as he did in Game 1. 

Irving has to find a way to get the rest of the Mavericks going in Game 2. He had eight potential assists in Game 1 but finished with only four dimes due to Dallas’ poor shooting.

L.A. did a great job dealing with the Mavs’ high screens and forcing Dallas into bad shots in Game 1. If Leonard returns, it gives the Clips a lockdown defender to throw at Doncic.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mavericks vs Clippers odds

Get the latest Mavericks vs. Clippers Game 2 NBA playoff odds.

Mavericks vs Clippers live odds

Mavericks vs Clippers opening odds

  • Spread: Dallas -2.5 | Los Angeles +2.5
  • Moneyline: Dallas -125 | Los Angeles +105
  • Over/Under: Over 219.5 | Under 219.5

Mavericks vs Clippers spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Following the Game 1 loss in L.A., Dallas opened as a 2.5-point road favorite for Game 2 with the market expecting a bounceback game from Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Mavs. Some books were as high as Mavs -3 on Monday but this spread has shrunk to as low as -2 on Tuesday morning.

  • Leonard sat out Game 1 due to knee soreness. Sharp books had opened Los Angeles as a 2-point home favorite but with Kawhi out, that spread jumped the fence and ran to as high as Clips +3.5 before game time. That makes Leonard worth about 5.5 points to L.A.’s spread.

  • Tuesday’s game total hit the board as high as 219.5 points and has slimmed to 216.5 at most books as of Tuesday morning. That’s a notable adjustment from the closing total of 223 O/U for Game 1 of this series.

  • According to Covers Consensus data, 53% of picks are laying the points with Dallas in a zig-zag spot on Tuesday night. As for the Over/Under, 54% of picks are taking the Over in Game 2.

Mavericks vs Clippers trend

The Mavericks have gone Under the total in 39 of their last 58 games (+18.10 units). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Clippers.

Mavericks vs Clippers game info

Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Tuesday, 4-23-2024
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT, truTV

Mavericks vs Clippers latest injuries

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst; has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike. Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet. He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jasons first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns. On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast; WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio; he had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers; flagship podcast, The Sharp 600. His best advice for bettors new and old is; Handicapping isn't a one size fits all process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.

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