Are the Los Angeles Clippers in the midst of another postseason meltdown?
The Clippers positioned themselves to avoid the Lakers' path in the West playoff bracket, but early returns aren't encouraging after taking a 113-103 L to the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of their opening-round tilt.
The Clippers still hold an edge for NBA betting as we head into Game 2 — are they worth backing? Find out with our Mavericks vs. Clippers picks and predictions for Tuesday, May 25.
Mavericks vs Clippers game info
• Location: STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Tuesday, May 25, 2021
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV: BS-SoCal, BS-SW-Dal, NBATV
Mavericks vs Clippers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThe Clippers opened as low as -6 and have climbed to 7-point home chalk for Game 2. However, despite that move, FanDuel sportsbooks is reporting 65 percent of bets on the Mavericks along with 62 percent of the spread handle riding on the underdog. The total opened at 216 points and has slimmed to 215.5 at some books. The Over has drawn 86 percent of the total tickets as well as 88 percent of the money wagered on the total.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMavericks vs Clippers series odds
Mavericks: +135
Clippers: -155
Mavericks vs Clippers betting preview
Injuries
Mavericks: Maxi Kleber PF (Questionable), JJ Redick SG (Out).
Clippers: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Clippers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
So much for game selection.
The Clippers played "Choose Your Own Adventure" and now still find themselves in an early hole. Their disregard for the Mavs clearly rubbed Luka Doncic — who dropped a scowling 30-point triple-double in a sloth-paced Game 1 — the wrong way.
Luka has simply been a problem, and despite the Clippers' vaunted perimeter D, his playoff hit list against them is starting to look fairly gruesome. When L.A. finally closed out on him enough to silence his barrage of threes, the Mavs moved the ball to the open man with precision and finished.
The Clippers have certainly been guilty of complacency and inconsistency, even this year after their ostensible wake-up call in the bubble. Kawhi Leonard will always be Kawhi Leonard, but what comes with him wavers from night to night.
Paul George was dreadful in the first half (sending NBA Twitter into a frenzy), Marcus Morris was a total non-factor, and Pat Beverley, as Doncic kindly reminded him, wasn't big enough to contest Dallas' best player. The Clippers reserves were actually their only players to post a positive +/- in Game 1, as Dallas put L.A. in an early double-digit deficit.
There are several signs for encouragement if you're a Clippers backer, namely that the Mavs are unlikely to keep shooting 47 percent from 3-point range. L.A., which led the entire league from long distance at almost 41 percent this season, was a horrid 11 for 40.
We can (probably) expect a better effort from the Clippers on both sides of the ball, and would take them on the moneyline. But this spread is curiously big, given how the Mavs have played them across two series so far. We think Dallas keeps this one within the window.
PREDICTION: Dallas +7 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Game 2's total is set at 215.5, a shade below the 216 points scored in Game 1, which, in turn, makes this a fairly easy Over smash.
First, we need the context of just how lethargic Game 1 was to yield that total. Saturday's game had an 87.5 pace rating (number of possessions per team). Sure, the Clips and Mavs were both bottom-5 pace teams this season, but to put it into perspective, the Knicks were the NBA's slowest team this year at a 96.32 pace, while the Wizards were the fastest at 104.67. Thus, the margin by which Game 1 was slower than the NBA's slowest team was greater than the entire league's gap in pace. Likely an outlier.
Also demanding consideration is the Clippers' abysmal 3-point shooting, which led to a disturbing amount of mid-range jumpers. As noted, the Clippers shot the long ball better than any NBA team this season and they had the league's third-best offensive rating overall. They'll be better in Game 2.
Last season's bubble battle also suggests these teams will do more damage to the scoreboard. Obviously, the rosters and systems are slightly different (both squads are noticeably slower), but 2020's series had a whopping 242 average total, with only one of the six games falling beneath Game 2's number.
Count on these two to perk up a bit tonight, as the Clippers won't be as dormant offensively and will force the Mavs' hands.
PREDICTION: Over 215.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
As spectacular as Doncic generally is, he's found a higher gear in the postseason.
Luka has been an absolute killer in his brief playoff career, set exclusively against a team that, on paper at least, seems custom-built to shut him down.
Doncic's Game 1 performance was pretty much in line with his averages of 31/9.9/9, and since he's clearly pissed off at L.A. and one of the seven or so best basketball players alive, we have no reason to assume he's not going to keep torching the Clippers.
Considering Doncic averages 50 pts+rebs+asts against this team in the playoffs, his 46.5 total in that market seems very reasonable in a game the Mavericks could seize control of this series by winning. And given his three triple-doubles in seven playoff games, +335 value on that prop is too much to ignore.
This is the playoffs, where the best players rise to the occasion. Count on Luka to deliver here.
PREDICTION: Luka Doncic triple-double (+335) and Over 46.5 pts+rebs+asts (-115)
Mavericks vs Clippers betting card
- Dallas +7 (-110)
- Over 215.5 (-110)
- Luka Doncic triple-double (+335) and Over 46.5 pts+rebs+asts (-115)
Picks made on 5/25/2021 at 09:10 a.m. ET
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