The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers are so very alike while being extremely different. Those similarities and contrasts are on display in our NBA Western Conference Finals betting preview.
Both teams lean into their defense to get the job done — allowing the fewest points against of the four remaining teams — while anchoring their offense in superior interior play, making life easier on the perimeter players. The Lakers and Nuggets have also held home court in the NBA Playoffs, with twin 6-0 records inside their own arenas.
However, these franchises have followed different paths this postseason and are portrayed as polar opposites in the mainstream media.
The consistent play of Denver received little hype or respect from the betting markets as the top seed in the West, entering the NBA Playoffs as +1,000 longshots in our NBA Championship odds despite owning the smoothest road to the finals in terms of seeding. Even entering the conference semis, the Nuggets were +700 to win the NBA Finals which were the same NBA odds as the Lakers at that time.
Los Angeles has been at the center of the NBA world all season, especially since revamping its roster in mid-February — a move that sparked a second-half surge and a postseason push. The Lakers are always darlings with the betting masses and hold the highest liability in the futures market, entering Round 1 at +1,400 to win it all despite earning the No. 7 seed and having to win a play-in game to advance to the tournament.
The NBA Playoff odds opened Denver as a -145 favorite to win the West finals, which has since moved to -155. Los Angeles is coming back as a +125 series underdog, with the Nuggets holding home-court advantage in the seven-game series.
I break down the strengths and weaknesses of both sides ahead of Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday and give my series pick for Lakers vs. Nuggets below.
2022-23 NBA Championship odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each team from regulated sportsbooks. Analysis below may not match live odds.
Los Angeles Lakers breakdown (No. 7 seed, 43-39)
Strengths
Two stars are better than one, and while that didn’t play out well for Phoenix’s combo of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, the Los Angeles Lakers have a much deeper and more talented team behind LeBron James and Anthony Davis than the Suns’ complementing parts.
Davis is playing out of his mind on both ends of the floor this postseason. He’s pulled a few disappearing acts on offense, but his defensive contributions and rebounding have shaped the series wins over Memphis and Golden State.
And then there’s LeBron. James has been a steady force for L.A. and is always there to step up or take the big shot when needed. He’s had a couple of big games but for the most part, it really feels like LeBron has enjoyed having others share the load in the postseason. At 38 years old, James can still do whatever he wants when he wants.
James and A.D. can shoulder the lion’s share of the offensive burden, but the Lakers’ work on defense has been a total team effort. Since swapping out the bulk of their bodies at the trade deadline, L.A. has become one of the top defense teams in the league. They own the best defensive rating in the postseason (106.5) and are a much stiffer test for Denver than Phoenix and Minnesota, especially with Davis and Jokic going head-to-head.
Weaknesses
Outside shooting has been the bane of Lakers bettors during the entire LeBron era in L.A. The interior muscle of James and Davis compact defenses into the paint, leaving ample clean air for perimeter players to catch, square, and fire. Yet, Los Angeles is shooting just 33% from beyond the arc in the postseason.
The Lakers’ defensive prowess sets the team up to go on extended runs but without consistent shooting from 3-point range, L.A. struggles to put real distance between it and opponents. The games in which Los Angeles has gotten hot from outside have been impressive, with foes unable to stop the bleeding.
The Purple and Gold may need to lean on its outside shooting more in this series, as Denver’s defense is also a twist for a Lakers interior that has had the advantage over its first two playoff foes. Memphis was missing key pieces of its frontcourt and Golden State got very small beyond Kevin Looney.
The Nuggets have the size to push back in the paint and are the best rebounding team in the playoffs (54.1% rebound rate), giving up the fewest second-chance points. And if Davis gets into foul trouble trying to check Jokic, Los Angeles shrinks up dramatically with the next option being 7-footer Mo Bamba, who has been sidelined with an ankle injury.
X-Factor: D'Angelo Russell
D'Angelo Russell needs to focus on his on-court performance rather than pushing whatever fly-by-night sports drink he’s tried jamming into press conferences.
He’s shown an ability to put up buckets in big wins for L.A. during the first two rounds, but his outside shooting is where the Lakers need him the most. So far in the playoffs, Russell is shooting less than 35% from beyond the arc and averaging two triples a contest — metrics that must climb if Los Angeles is going to steal a game in Denver.
Russell can also be a catalyst in transition and fast breaks, upping the tempo against a Nuggets team that runs a more plodding pace (96.27 in postseason/98.74 in regular season).
The Lakers have gotten away from their transition roots since that roster swap, but this is an offense that can get out and run and Denver has struggled with fast break points (15.5 points allowed) and transition offense (1.23 points per play — third-highest mark in playoffs).
Best NBA bonuses
Looking to do some NBA betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
B) Get a no-sweat NBA SGP or SGPx every day at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Denver Nuggets breakdown (No. 1 seed, 53-29)
Strengths
It appears the MVP snub did not sit well with Nikola Jokic.
The two-time Most Valuable Player has decimated the Denver Nuggets' first two opponents, averaging close to 31 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists per game, all while shooting 55% from the floor in the playoffs. He upped that output in the series win over Phoenix and while Anthony Davis is by far his toughest challenge, Jokic’s Game 1 player projections still flirt with a triple-double.
Jokic’s biggest strength in this series could be sucking Davis into foul trouble and taking the biggest piece of the Lakers’ playoff puzzle out of the mix. He nullified Suns center Deandre Ayton by drawing fouls last round (before Ayton injured his ribs) and fouled out Timberwolves star big Karl-Anthony Towns twice in Round 1 (as well as a five-foul Game 2 for KAT).
And let’s not forget about Jamal Murray. Tough to call the Nuggets' point guard an X-Factor when he averaged almost 25 points and 6.5 assists in Round 2. Murray isn’t afraid of the postseason pressure and will drop a 40-burger on foes in a blink. His ability to catch fire from distance can leave L.A. trading threes for twos and he can expose Los Angeles’ issues defending dribble penetration in the postseason.
As a team, Denver does the little things right. The Nuggets take care of the basketball, with only 11.5 turnovers flipping into 12.9 points off those mistakes per postseason game.
They also clean the glass like an overcaffeinated window washer, owning a rebound rate of 54.1% while limiting opponents to 8.2 offensive rebounds and 9.1 second-chance points. Denver also cashes in its freebies, shooting 81.5% from the foul line — good for ATS and Over bettors alike.
Weaknesses
To be fair, there aren’t many glaring weaknesses for the Nuggets.
Denver’s defense is sound but not as stingy as the Lakers, especially when the Nuggets hit the highway. They laid two defensive stinkers in Phoenix last series and their defensive rating balloons to 116.2 on the road vs. just 104.9 at home. This is nothing new, as we saw a similar split in the regular season.
Denver’s offensive efficiency very much helps protect the defense, with the slower-paced Nuggets hitting at a high rate and forcing foes to start most possessions from the inbounds. That allows them to get set in the halfcourt and avoid having to play a more up-tempo style. When on the run, Denver struggles to keep up, allowing plenty of fast break buckets and transition points.
The Lakers have been able to win on the road in some tougher venues (Memphis and Golden State) and should they steal a game in Ball Arena, the Nuggets could be hard-pressed to counter back in La-La Land. Denver owned a net rating of -3.0 (20th) on the road in the regular season and that’s improved to +2.5 away from home in the postseason — a number boosted by the 25-point blowout in Game 6 at Phoenix.
X-Factor: Aaron Gordon
Aaron Gordon draws the LeBron assignment in the Western Conference Finals. The athletic 6-foot-8 forward has been a foil for opponents’ top talents so far in the postseason, picking up Towns and Durant in the opening two rounds.
Gordon has the length to challenge shots, 250 pounds to push back in the post, and athleticism laterally to slow James off the dribble. He did get into foul trouble a few times in the opening two rounds, but disrupting LeBron in any capacity could be all Denver needs.
Gordon’s leaping makes him a shot blocker/changer and he’s also going to win 50/50 balls on the boards. Offensively, he finishes fast breaks at the rim, can make a foul line jumper, and has been a blossoming facilitator the past few games as well.
Lakers vs Nuggets series prediction
All the way back in October, we at Covers mushed our best basketball betting brains together for season-long picks and predictions. And being a Lakers fan, I tongue-in-cheek sided with L.A. to win it all at +2,500. Here we are eight months later, and that not-so-serious forecast is falling into place.
The Western Conference Finals odds opened with Denver as a -145 favorite, holding home-court advantage as the higher seed. That price has since climbed to -155, with the implied probability leaping from 59.18% to 60.78%.
Home court has been worth its weight in gold to both teams, with twin 6-0 SU marks as hosts, and overall home sides own a 44-24 SU mark in the playoffs (65%).
When you take the sportsbooks’ vig out of the equation, you end up with Denver’s original win probability closer to 57%, which is the exact same percentage for the home team to win four out of seven games if the matchup was dead even. This West final is pretty, pretty close.
Depending on the sportsbook, you’ll find the series exact game markets at different prices. Some have a full seven games as a +170 (DraftKings) front-runner for series result while others are offering +195 on a seven-game slog, with six games at +190. We’ll buy up the latter looking for the Lakers and Nuggets to go the distance.
Best bet: Series exact games — Seven (+195 at bet365)
