Lakers vs Nuggets Game 1 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Davis Moves Mountains

If the Los Angeles Lakers are going to get back to the top of the mountain in the NBA, they’ll have to first climb a mile high to face the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals.

Los Angeles is a road underdog in Denver for the series opener, taking on the top-seeded Nuggets on Tuesday night.

While LeBron James brings plenty of star power to the West finals, this series is headlined by a battle between two of the top big men in the NBA, with Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis dueling in the paint.

Denver and L.A. clashed four times during the regular season, with the teams splitting those four encounters SU and ATS, but those meetings all came before Los Angeles’ roster revamp in mid-February, which sparked the team’s NBA odds-defying late-season surge and playoff push.

I run down the point spread and Over/Under total for Game 1 and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Nuggets on Tuesday, May 16. Be sure to also check out my Lakers vs. Nuggets Western Conference Finals betting preview for even more insights ahead of tip off.

Lakers vs Nuggets Game 1 best odds

Lakers vs Nuggets Game 1 picks and predictions

It’s been a while since “LeBron James versus Whoever” wasn’t the marquee matchup of an NBA Playoffs series. But with the Nuggets marching out Nikola Jokic to the middle of the key, all eyes are on Lakers big man Anthony Davis.

Davis has been a two-way force for Los Angeles. You could make the case that behind Jokic’s bonkers stat lines, Davis’ postseason performances rank No. 2 in the tournament (we see you, Jimmy Butler). He’s averaging more than 21 points, 14 rebounds along with 3.3 blocks and 1.7 steals in the playoffs.

Davis is the toughest challenge for Jokic on both ends of the floor so far in the postseason, and vice versa facing the two-time MVP. The Game 1 player modeling does paint a clash of the titans atop the Rocky Mountains, with Davis’ point projections bouncing between lows of 21 points and highs closer to 27 tonight.

My number is a little more level, but ends up on the lower end of Davis’ scoring forecast at 23.75 points, which is still plenty to clear his modest point prop of 22.5 points (Over -115).

This 22.5-point total is the shortest points prop AD has been tabbed with all postseason and a few factors are working to whittle this number down from previous scoring Over/Unders highs of 25.5 points.

For one, the matchup. Jokic may not have the defensive chops of Davis, but he’s a master at drawing whistles and seeing his checks ushered to the bench with foul trouble, as he did to Suns center Deandre Ayon and T-Wolves big Karl-Anthony Towns.

Davis’ previous scoring output has been below expectations as well. He’s played below his scoring prop in five straight playoff games and is 2-7 O/U versus his projected points going back to Round 1. That said, he did score 23 points or more in four of the six games with Golden State and has surpassed this current total in half of his dozen postseason performances so far.

He played three games against the Nuggets this season, but you can’t put any weight into those meetings. Back in December, he lasted only 17 minutes and scored 10 points before leaving with a foot injury that would follow him throughout the schedule. The other two games came in a home-and-home set in October in which Davis scored 22 and 23 points with an entirely different roster around him.

This total is pretty much on the fence between those two outputs and ticking up at some sportsbooks. The Over 22.5 is juiced as high as -143 and some books have moved off the 22.5 and to 23.5 (Over -120). Shop for the best price on the lower end of the total as the projections get much tighter at the taller 23.5.

My best bet: Anthony Davis Over 22.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Lakers vs Nuggets Game 1 same-game parlay

Anthony Davis Over 22.5 -125

LeBron James Over 5.5 Assists -115

Aaron Gordon Over 2+ Assists -220

+380 at DraftKings

My number for Davis’ points comes out closer to 24 in Game 1 with his ceiling near 27 points for some projections. Let’s just hope he stays out of foul trouble and logs major minutes.

LeBron has seen his passing peak in past games and the bulk of his assist projections are north of six dimes, with my number at 6.1 helpers.

And depending on where you make this SGP, Aaron Gordon assist O/U props may not be on the board, which is why we’re settling for 2+ dimes. Gordon has gone Over his assist prop in three straight games and once that Over/Under market opens for SGP’s, you can find Gordon Over 2.5 assists at plus-money, which gives this parlay a kick in the pants.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Lakers vs Nuggets Game 1 spread and Over/Under analysis

Following the Lakers' six-game series victory over Golden State in the conference semifinals, oddsmakers opened the Nuggets as 5-point home favorites for Tuesday’s series opener. It took about 24 hours for the market to move to Denver -5.5 and is now sitting at -6 with some 6.5-point spreads showing up at sharper Vegas books.

The Nuggets are undefeated in six postseason games inside Ball Arena, going 5-1 ATS with a net rating of +13.9 in those contests. Denver has been especially stingy in front of the Colorado faithful, owning a defensive rating of 104.9 over those six homestands.

Los Angeles has also enjoyed an unblemished record at home in the NBA Playoffs, but life on the road hasn’t been kind to LeBron & Co. The Lakers are 2-4 SU and ATS as postseason visitors, lugging a -7.6 net rating in opposing arenas.

The Purple and Gold have seen the biggest home/road split in terms of their defensive intensity, with a rating of 114.8 on the road versus just 98.2 at home (a playoff best).

That said, the Lakers have faced two of the best home teams in the NBA in the first two rounds, knocking off Memphis (25-18-1 ATS) and Golden State (30-16-1 ATS). The Nuggets are right there at the top, with an overall 30-16-1 ATS record (65%) at home.

The Game 1 total hit the board at 223 points and has slimmed a touch to 222.5 as of Tuesday morning. This total is shorter than what both sides faced in their respective conference semifinal series, with opponents like the Warriors and Suns playing a high-scoring/softer defense brand of basketball.

Denver does play a more methodical offensive attack, relying on the halfcourt set to find space around Jokic working around the key. That patient approach and effective shooting and forced teams to start many possessions from the inbounds. The Nuggets are giving up 99.7 points per game at Ball Arena with a 3-3 Over/Under count as hosts in the playoffs.

Los Angeles’ offense sees a drop-off of about 10 points between home and away, shooting 45% from the floor with a chilly 31.4% success rate from beyond the arc. The Lakers defense also softens away from the City of Angels, with their defensive rating spiking from a drum-tight 98.2 at home to 114.8 on the road. Los Angeles is 4-2 Over/Under on the road in the postseason, but did play up-tempo teams in Golden State and Memphis.

Lakers vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Nuggets are 28-3 SU and 19-11-1 ATS when laying at least -5.5 at home this season, including the playoffs. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Nuggets.

Lakers vs Nuggets Game 1 game info

Lakers vs Nuggets Game 1 key injuries

Pages related to this topic