The Oklahoma City Thunder haven’t missed a beat in the first week of the new NBA season, and they’ll look to move to 5-0 as they host the Sacramento Kings tonight.
Sacramento is coming off a brutal loss to a Los Angeles Lakers team missing Luka Doncic, and my Kings vs. Thunder predictions expect some home cooking here for the defending champs, with Chet Holmgren dominating in the paint.
Take a closer look at this October 28 clash with my free NBA picks and betting tips.
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Kings vs Thunder prediction
Kings vs Thunder best bet: Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 rebounds (-114 at bet365)
The Chet Holmgren All-Star case is already taking shape after an impressive first week of the season, and the Oklahoma City Thunder will continue to lean on his two-way talent in tonight’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings.
While Holmgren is still just scratching the surface of his offensive potential as a sidekick for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, he’s clearly established himself as a force on the glass, and that’s where I’m looking for my best bet here.
Against a Sacramento team that’s likely to shoot a barrage of jump shots, Chet is well placed to rack up a big haul on the boards, and I’m taking the Over on a line of 8.5.
He’s finished with 11+ rebounds in each of his past three games, and he also pulled down double-digit boards in his lone outing against the Kings last season.
Isaiah Hartenstein is a threat to swoop in for a share of the rebounding work, but the Kings’ starting lineup against the Lakers featured Domantas Sabonis as the lone big man. That could mean longer stints where OKC loads up on smaller, guard-heavy units next to Holmgren, who would carry the burden around the rim.
Sacramento has lost the rebounding battle in all three contests so far this year, and the visitors have no easy answer for Chet in this matchup.
Kings vs Thunder same-game parlay
With SGA off to an explosive start, backed by big contributions from the supporting cast, I see OKC racking up a big total tonight.
The Kings gave up 127 points to the depleted Lakers on Sunday, putting a brighter spotlight on their turnstile defense, and the Thunder are poised to feast in transition and in the halfcourt. Sacramento should contribute just enough offensively to nail this Over.
I’ll also take the Under on the DeMar DeRozan points prop as he faces the gauntlet of Lu Dort and Cason Wallace. That relentless pressure could turn DeRozan into more of a playmaker than a scorer here, and he fell short of this number on his last visit to Paycom Center.
Kings vs Thunder SGP
- Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 rebounds
- Over 227.5
- DeMar DeRozan Under 19.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Open buffet for Wallace
The emergence of Ajay Mitchell off the bench has eaten into some of Wallace’s touches, but there should be a buffet of open looks on offer tonight as the Kings scramble to contain Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren.
Wallace missed all five of his 3-pointers against the Dallas Mavericks on Monday, but this is a nice spot to get back on track, especially if he’s guarded by DeRozan or Zach LaVine.
Kings vs Thunder SGP
- Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 rebounds
- Over 227.5
- DeMar DeRozan Under 19.5 points
- Cason Wallace Over 9.5 points
Kings vs Thunder odds
- Spread: Kings +9 (-110) | Thunder -9 (-110)
- Moneyline: Kings +320 | Thunder -400
- Over/Under: Over 226.5 (-110) | Under 226.5 (-110)
Kings vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Thunder have covered the spread in their last five matchups against the Kings. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Thunder.
How to watch Kings vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Tuesday, October 28, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports California, FDSN Oklahoma |
Kings vs Thunder latest injuries
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