While the corporate-filled Chase Center does not enjoy the raucous crowd that Oracle Arena in Oakland did, the Golden State Warriors undoubtedly want to clinch this first-round series at home. Heading back to Texas for a Game 7 against the Houston Rockets would be a risk not worth taking.
My NBA picks believe avoiding a return to Texas may hinge on a Texas native. I like the Jimmy Butler odds for him to spur the Warriors’ offense at tip at 9:00 p.m. ET on Friday, May 2.
Jimmy Butler player prop picks
- Best bet
Jimmy Butler Over 5.5 assists
(-105) - SGP pick
Jimmy Butler Over 5.5 assists
Jimmy Butler Under 5.5 rebounds
Jimmy Butler Over 0.5 3-pointers
(+800)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jimmy Butler best bet
Jimmy Butler Over 5.5 assists (-105 at bet365)
Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green have a lot in common. Both are well past their primes, insist on a postseason mentality that gives their team a competitive verve but can easily and often become a drawback, and are generally sore at all times.
And, to give a well-deserved compliment, both know the game of basketball in a way only found with years of experience trying to make the most of moderate physical abilities.
So it is not too shocking that Butler has taken over some of Green’s playmaking role in the Golden State Warriors' offense. For a generation, the idea of a Green/Steph Curry pick-and-roll put defenses into peril. They could simply switch on Curry and give him a mismatch likely ending in a 3-pointer, or they could double Curry and give Green a 4-on-3 advantage.
Green’s basketball intellect turned those advantages into assists.
That pick-and-roll is more intimidating with Butler. Even if he is simply initiating the offense on his own, being able to drive so much better than Green does — all while defenders still need to stick to Curry — creates that advantage.
Thus, Butler has cleared this assists prop twice in this series. Keep in mind, he has played only two full games, missing one entirely with a sore tailbone, missing all but eight minutes of another before that injury occurred, and getting benched for much of the second half of the Game 5 blowout along with the rest of the Warriors’ starters.
Assume there will not be another blowout, certainly not one that prompts Steve Kerr to wave a white flag. And for the sake of quality basketball — not to mention the delight of Target Center giving Jimmy Butler a reminder of why he needed his defining moment in a Timberwolves uniform to come in an empty practice gym — trust Butler does not reaggravate his soreness.
In the Warriors’ last three games of the regular season, when every moment could save them from the Play-In Tournament, Butler had at least seven assists in each game. He notched six in the Play-In win.
This is why the Warriors agreed to mortgage their future for him. That should show up in Game 6.
Jimmy Butler same-game parlay
Jimmy Butler Over 5.5 assists
Jimmy Butler Under 5.5 rebounds
Jimmy Butler Over 0.5 3-pointers
If Butler’s pain in the rear end is going to limit him anywhere, it is most likely on the glass.
Houston plays physical basketball. We all saw that delight in Game 5. Crashing the glass against the Houston Rockets comes at a cost.
Adding doubt in Butler hitting a 3-pointer escalates this same-game parlay even though it is hardly outlandish. He is 2-for-7 from deep in this series and shot 30.8% from beyond the arc this season, including 27.9% while with the Warriors. Butler is good at many things, but shooting 3s is not one of them.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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