The new-look Brooklyn Nets are looking to get where the Miami Heat were last season – the NBA Finals – and the two teams will face off for the second time in as many games Monday night in Brooklyn.
As 8-point NBA betting favorites, the Nets edged the Heat 128-124 last time out and NBA odds have BK as a 7.5-point favorite tonight. Brooklyn has been inconsistent since James Harden got to town while the Heat have dropped five of seven and will once again be without Jimmy Butler, who has missed the last six games due to COVID protocols.
Here are our NBA free picks and predictions for Heat vs. Nets on January 25, with tip-off set for 7:30 pm ET.
Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets Betting Preview
Injuries
Heat: Nicolas Claxton F (Out).
Nets: Goran Dragic G (Questionable), KZ Okpala (Questionable), Jimmy Butler F (Out), Tyler Herro G (Out), Avery Bradley G (Out), Maurice Harkless (Out), Meyers Leonard (Out), Chris Silva F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 5-0 in the Heat's last five games following a straight-up loss, and 8-0 in the Nets last eight games as a favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Nets.
NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonPointsBet USA pegged the Nets 7.5-point favorites to open and moved to -7 this afternoon. As of 4 p.m. ET, Brooklyn is attracting 63 percent of point-spread bets and 70 percent of point-spread money. The total opened at 234.5 and is now up to 236.5, with 62 percent of bets and 73 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
To be fair to the Heat, due to injuries and COVID protocols, this team barely resembles the one that made the impressive run to the NBA Finals last season. It’s actually impressive their record isn’t worse considering the circumstances and is a testament to the coaching job Erik Spoelstra has done.
Meanwhile, Steve Nash and the Nets are still trying to figure out how this whole Kevin Durant-Kyrie Irving-James Harden thing is going to work. Scoring obviously won’t be much of a problem, as the Nets have averaged 124.6 points in Harden’s first five games. It’s getting stops that are the problem.
The Nets are just 3-2 (with two losses to the Cleveland Cavaliers) in those five games, giving up 126.4 points per contest. And in those three wins, the biggest was by just seven points against the Orlando Magic. One of the costs of the Harden trade was the Nets’ depth, as with that gone the Nets have lost their defensive versatility. And, simply put, no team is going to be a great defensive one with Harden, Irving and Joe Harris all on the floor at once.
Depleted or not, the Heat are well-coached and still have Bam Adebayo. The Nets had no answer for Adebayo last time out, allowing him to go off for 41 points on 14-20 shooting to along with nine assists and five boards. With that in mind, we’re fading the Nets – who are 1-4 ATS with Harden – until they figure things out.
PREDICTION: Heat +7.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
While the side is a little more difficult to predict in this matchup, the total seems much more straightforward, even with the number posted at 235.
As mentioned, the Nets do a lot of scoring without presenting much of a front on the defensive end. While the Heat can be a solid defensive bunch, they still rank 22nd in opponent scoring, allowing 113.1 points per game and particularly struggle with their perimeter defense. That's not good against a Brooklyn team that is deadly shooting from long range, ranking third in the NBA in 3-point percentage.
With these teams trending to the Over and putting up 252 points last time out, we’re not betting on a low-scoring matchup.
PREDICTION: Over 235 (-110)
Player Prop
We talked about how Brooklyn had no answer for Adebayo last time these two teams met...and that shouldn’t change this time around. But even though Adebayo put up 41 points last game, his best prop might be his assists total.
Since Adebayo has essentially become a one-man show in Miami, he has also taken on the role of facilitator. Adebayo has averaged 5.5 assists on the year and that number has gone up to 6.4 over the last seven games, which includes handing out nine dimes against the Nets last time out.
With Brooklyn ranking 20th in opponent assists per game, we like Bam to go Over his total once again.
PREDICTION: Bam Adebayo Over 5.5 Assists (-120)
Heat vs Nets Betting Card
- Heat +7.5 (-110)
- Over 235 (-110)
- Bam Adebayo Over 5.5 Assists (-120)
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