Heat vs Knicks Game 2 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Knicks Knot Things Up

The Miami Heat drew first blood against the New York Knicks in Game 1 on Sunday, snatching homecourt from Tom Thibodeau’s team with a second half masterclass by Kyle Lowry. Game 2 is a virtual must-win for the Knicks, and the injury report is littered with star players nursing ankle injuries, including Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, and Jimmy Butler.

With both teams potentially missing key players or playing limited versions of them, whoever wins on Tuesday, May 2 will have to put together a total team effort.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Game 2 of Heat vs. Knicks expect New York to pull off a significant victory after their Game 1 letdown.

Heat vs Knicks Game 2 best odds

Heat vs Knicks Game 2 picks and predictions

Game 1 between the Miami Heat and the New York Knicks was a classic tale of two halves. The Knicks were rolling to start the game, with RJ Barrett in particular carving up the Heat on the interior. Miami rallied in the third quarter, however, spearheaded by the play of Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry. 

Now the Knicks need to find a way to win on Tuesday if they want to have any chance to win the series. There’s good reason to think they will, due to the various injury expectations for Game 2, as well as improvements to tactics and execution I expect New York to make.

First and foremost, we have to consider the potential for the various ankle injuries on both sides to impact Game 2. Butler suffered a nasty sprain with about five minutes to go in Game 1, and while he finished the game, he was almost totally immobile while he remained on the court. 

It’s impossible to know for sure, but there’s a good chance that having secured a win at MSG, the Heat opt to rest Butler for Tuesday’s game. 

Julius Randle is also officially questionable, having injured his ankle during Game 5 against the Cavaliers. Additionally, Jalen Brunson has also been listed as questionable with his own ankle injury. 

Of the three players, I believe Butler is the most likely candidate to miss Game 2 completely, due to the severity of his injury, and the motivation Miami will have to hold him back. If the Heat elect to treat Butler’s ankle injury conservatively, they could sit Jimmy Buckets for Game 2 and buy him six days of rest, as the Knicks and Heat don’t play Game 3 until Saturday.

Butler is the Heat's offense at this point. The Knicks were so preoccupied by his back cutting and movement off ball in Game 1, it opened up shots for everyone else. Without him, they will have a tough time keeping pace with New York offensively, particularly given the Knicks' desperation to avoid going down 0-2.

Regardless of Butler’s status, the Knicks should put together a much stronger performance in Game 2 because they have so many things simple things they can improve. 

The Knicks lost Game 1 despite scoring 62 points in the paint, largely because they shot a putrid 20% from three, many of which were wide-open looks. Miami also punished the Knicks' overzealous offensive rebounding with Kevin Love's outlet passing repeatedly, neither of which should continue.

But most critically, the Knicks shot themselves in the foot with their negative spacing lineups. By playing so many non-shooters, the Heat were hyper-aggressive in dropping against New York’s players. When the Knicks shot, there were often four or five Heat players with two feet in the paint. The Heat shrunk the court against the Knicks just like the Knicks did to beat Cleveland. 

The difference between the Heat and the Knicks is that New York has multiple two-way players they can give more minutes to in Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley, who are also outstanding shooters. Quickley and Grimes will play more, which should open up the Knicks' driving game again. 

Shrinking the court also hurt the Knicks' best offense from Round 1 — offensive rebounding. If they spread Miami out better, they’ll get the interior game going as well.

With the Knicks desperate and Butler likely out or limited, I’m expecting New York to make the necessary adjustments required to cover the Game 2 spread.

My best bet: Knicks -6.5 (-110 at bet365)

Heat vs Knicks same-game parlay

Mitchell Robinson 2+ blocks (-155)

Mitchell Robinson 10+ rebounds (-260)

Mitchell Robinson 8+ points (-105)

+255 at DraftKings

Mitchell Robinson was arguably the most impactful Knick of the first round, dominating Cleveland on the boards, denying them the paint, and scoring opportunistically as well. He put in a solid but unremarkable performance in Game 1 against the Heat, but I’m betting he’s going to put together a more complete effort in Game 2.

Randle’s likely return to the lineup means that Robinson will no longer be guarded by Bam Adebayo. Adebayo did an excellent job boxing out Robinson (even though Mitch still managed 14 rebounds), which should both open up more offensive rebounding chances as well as his lob finishing game. 

Furthermore, more emphasis on Knicks shooting means fewer Heat players in the paint, and more opportunities for Robinson. Robinson has had two or more blocks in five straight games, a shade under eight points in his last 10 games, and an eye-popping 14.3 boards over his last three.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Heat vs Knicks Game 2 spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread has seen a massive amount of variability. Books opened with the Knicks as low as -4.5 favorites, and have risen as high as -7.5.

In addition to the injuries and tactical reasons to believe in a New York cover, there are trends worthy of consideration. 

Home teams that lose Game 1 in the playoffs are strong favorites to dominate Game 2, as seen recently in Milwaukee and Cleveland’s massive Game 2 victories in the first round. That rubber band effect is also supported by New York’s strong record after suffering an against the spread loss. The Knicks are 4-0 in their last four games following an ATS loss.

The total for Game 2 opened at 207.5 and has since fallen to 206.5. Game 1 was a defensive game, which is how every game has been for the Knicks in the postseason to date. The Under is 6-0 in the Knicks’ last six games overall. But there’s reason to think Game 2 might be different. 

If Butler is hobbled or absent entirely, the Knicks can afford to play Josh Hart less in favor of more perimeter shooting. The Heat have also played a lot of high-scoring games recently, and the volume of threes they took in the first round and again in Game 1 creates significant variance for Tuesday’s result.

Heat vs Knicks betting trend to know

Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Knicks.

Heat vs Knicks Game 2 game info

Heat vs Knicks Game 2 key injuries

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