Heat vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Holiday Helps Bucks Cruise in Game 1

The NBA playoffs got off to a roaring start last night, and the drama just keeps coming with banger after banger scheduled for Sunday, April 16, including a 1-8 matchup with an unusual amount of intrigue between the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks. 

This will be the third playoff series in the past four years between Jimmy Butler and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s squads, so both teams should be extremely well-prepared for each other's tendencies and there’s enough bad blood to make things interesting.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Game 1 of Heat vs. Bucks are targeting Milwaukee guard Jrue Holiday for a big-time performance.

Heat vs Bucks best odds

Heat vs Bucks picks and predictions

The Milwaukee Bucks are a deep, deep squad. But even with a core of two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Brook Lopez, and three-time All-Star Khris Middleton, they never closed the deal until they landed Jrue Holiday from the New Orleans Pelicans. Holiday was the last, perfectly fitting piece in the championship puzzle — a quality outside shooter capable of defending and grinding down the world's best perimeter players.

Holiday has consistently been a player rated more highly by his peers and true aficionados than the general public for his impact, but his play this season has been undeniable. Jrue just finished an All-NBA caliber regular season, topped off by scoring a career-high 51 points a couple of weeks ago.

What’s truly incredible about Holiday is that he has just kept improving as an offensive player, even in this his 14th season. Middleton’s strange year spent in and out of the lineup created a huge hole in the Bucks’ offense, one that Holiday stepped into admirably. 

While Middleton and Giannis pick and rolls were the bread and butter of Bucks offenses past with Jrue acting mostly as a screener and spacer, now Holiday finds himself at the head of the snake more often than not.

His 32% assist percentage is by far the highest mark of his Bucks tenure, and a strong indication of how much playmaking responsibility has begun to shift from Middleton and towards Holiday. Holiday’s 7.4 assists per game are also by far a high watermark of his time in Milwaukee, as is his 19.3 points per game on extremely efficient shooting.

Holiday’s dribble pull up game has unlocked a new element of the Bucks’ offense and allows Milwaukee to punish teams trying to pack the paint against Giannis' drives. The Miami Heat will gladly concede Holiday threes if it means forming a wall against Antetokounmpo, and Jrue has made opponents pay at a 38.4% clip this season.

His size and physicality will give him a huge advantage against the diminutive Miami Heat backcourt of Tyler Herro and Gabe Vincent, and an aging and potentially limited Kyle Lowry would also struggle should he be able to suit up. Jrue can beat them with finesse from outside or put them in the basket, and that’s what makes him so dangerous now.

Holiday’s production is being underrated by oddsmakers. He’s averaged 26.6 combined points and assists over his last 10 games, and the line is available at a much more modest 23.5. I like Jrue to keep one of the finest stretches of his career rolling into the playoffs.

My best bet: Holiday Over 23.5 points + assists (-120)

Heat vs Bucks spread analysis

Though Miami and Milwaukee have split the two playoff series they’ve played over the last four seasons, this era of the Heat is not up to par with the one that shocked the Bucks out of playoffs during the NBA Bubble. While the Heat successfully won their way in through the second game of the play-in tournament, they have looked for long stretches this season like a team without a cohesive identity on offense.

That inability to generate consistent offense has seen Miami struggle to string together back-to-back quality performances all season long. That’s contributed to them going an abysmal 6-27-1 against the spread in their last 34 games following an ATS win.

While the Bucks’ closing regular season ATS trends aren’t too valuable because they didn’t play a full complement down the stretch, their playoff record is, particularly as they’ve largely kept the same group together the past three seasons. And that record is impressive. 

The Bucks have been dominant against the spread in the first round, going 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 conference quarterfinals games. This line is significant, but I’d lean Milwaukee at -9.

Heat vs Bucks Over/Under analysis

The Bucks remain perhaps the single most potent playoff defense in the league, and previous matchups between these two teams have seen Giannis and Lopez force Jimmy Butler to become a driver to great success. The Bucks have shown the requisite discipline not to bite on Butler’s pump fakes, forcing him to make jump shots and contested looks at the rim. 

Butler seemed to struggle to finish in both the play-in games against the Atlanta Hawks and the Chicago Bulls, neither of whom have rim protectors on the roster who can hold a candle to Lopez or Giannis. The Heat have disappointed on offense all season long, which has seen Overs pay off recently against lowered expectations, going 5-0 in their last five games.

While Milwaukee has sometimes had difficulty translating their offense into the playoffs, their defense and transition attack should be more than enough to handle this version of Miami most nights. They’re expecting to have a full complement on Sunday, including a healthy Middleton, and they could pour it on against Miami for stretches. This line has been hovering between 218.5 and 219.5 at most books, which seems right on the mark to me.

Heat vs Bucks betting trend to know

The Heat are 6-27-1 ATS in their last 34 games following an ATS win. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Bucks.

Heat vs Bucks game info

Heat vs Bucks key injuries

Pages related to this topic