Hawks vs Knicks Odds & Win Probability for Game 5 at Prediction Markets

Aisha Quiñones - Betting Analyst at Covers
Aisha Quiñones • Betting Analyst 12+ years betting experience
Updated: Apr 28, 2026 , 05:22 PM ET • 4 min read

Prediction markets like Kalshi are siding with the New York Knicks as favorites & our Hawks vs. Knicks picks lean toward the Knickerbockers making the most of their home-court advantage in Game 5.

Josh Hart New York Knicks NBA
Photo By - Reuters Connect. New York Knicks guard Josh Hart (3) controls the ball against Atlanta Hawks guard CJ McCollum (3) during the first quarter of game two of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Madison Square Garden.

The New York Knicks aim for redemption at Madison Square Garden, and while CJ McCollum has been a constant problem, they’re fixated on getting it done in order to take a 3-2 series lead.

With that said, our Hawks vs. Knicks predictions and free NBA picks have the home team standing on business to do just that on Tuesday, April 28.

Who will win Hawks vs Knicks Game 5?

Hawks win probability: 32% (+198)
Knicks win probability: 68% (-239)

The New York Knicks will be back in front of their home crowd for Game 5 & will try to take full advantage of being the favorites at 68% while CJ McCollum & the Atlanta Hawks look to pull off another upset in this series by coming in as the 32% underdogs.

Our prediction: Knicks to win

This has been a great opening round chess match, with the Hawks and Knicks able to neutralize each other’s biggest threats so far.

But with Jalen Brunson and Jalen Johnson struggling, the supporting casts are even more important.

I have more faith in New York’s lineup to pick up the slack, especially with the series swinging back to MSG.

Read more in Jason Logan's full Hawks vs. Knicks predictions.

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More Hawks vs Knicks prediction markets

You're certainly not limited to the main game outcome for Hawks vs. Knicks at Kalshi; you also have options to trade on the spread, total, and more, among other NBA odds markets.

You can buy either side of a market — for example, "Yes" on the Knicks -7.5 spread means New York will cover, while "No" means the Hawks will cover — with each side priced based on the implied probability (which can be converted to American, Decimal, or Fraction odds using the Covers odds converter).

Nuggets vs Timberwolves spread and total at prediction markets

Outcome Yes No
Knicks -7.5 45¢ (+109) 55¢ (-132)
Over 214.5 points 50¢ (-108) 51¢ (-116)

Our predictions: Knicks -7.5 — Yes and Over 214.5 points — Yes

New York avoided a bad spot with a strong road win in Game 4 and is learning to live without Jalen Brunson making his usual postseason magic. Atlanta, on the other hand, is starting to struggle with adjustments as the series goes on and doesn’t have a reliable support staff to step up, as the Knicks do.

Other Nuggets vs Timberwolves prediction markets available

  • Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 rebounds (Yes: 73¢)
  • Josh Hart Over 1.5 threes (Yes: 71¢)
  • Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 threes (Yes: 76¢)

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade "Event Contracts" which are simple Yes/No questions like "Will the Knicks win tonight?" These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

In a sportsbook, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets fixed odds and takes a "vig," which is a kind of commission. On Kalshi, you trade against other users. This peer-to-peer model means prices are driven by supply and demand, often resulting in fairer odds. Additionally, because these are financial derivatives, you can exit your position early. If your team takes a 14-point lead, the contract price will rise, allowing you to sell your "Yes" shares for a profit before the final whistle even blows.

Why should I wager on Hawks vs Knicks at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

  1. Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.

  2. Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.

  3. Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.

  4. Availability: Kalshi is available in 49 states (excluding Nevada) and D.C., including many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.

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Aisha Quiñones - Covers
Betting Analyst

Hailing from Harlem, New York, Aisha Quiñones joined Covers in 2024 after an illustrious career with several other major media outlets. A proud Johnnie, after graduating from the Big East basketball powerhouse St. John's University, Quiñones earned her bachelor's degree in sport management and journalism, then obtained her master's degree in media studies from The New School.

Over a span of 12+ years, Quiñones has built her portfolio as a writer, dipped her toe into on-camera work, and also been behind the scenes in producing sports content.

Despite being a New Yorker, Quiñones has always been a lifelong Los Angeles Lakers fan thanks to her mom's joy of watching Kobe Bryant play — so much of a fan to the point that Quiñones named her toy poodle after the late-great legend.

Her hometown roots stay true to her MLB and WNBA choice in teams, as a Yankees and Liberty fan, due to her uncle and grandmother's love for the sports throughout her childhood.

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