The Memphis Grizzlies try to snap a four-game losing streak as they head to the Target Center to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night.
Despite that recent slide, the Grizz still have the second-best record in the Western Conference at 31-17 and are expected to beat the T-Wolves, who recently climbed to .500.
NBA betting lines opened with Memphis as a 3.5-point road favorite with the Over/Under at 238.5. Here are my best free Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves NBA picks and predictions for January 27.
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves best odds
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves picks and predictions
The Grizzlies are in the midst of an ugly road trip that has seen them lose four straight games and cover just once during that span. They've been mediocre on the road all season and are just 11-14 with a net rating of minus-1.6 in away games compared to their 20-3 record with a net rating of plus-11 at home.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is 16-10 with a net rating of plus-2.0 at home and has been playing well since the calendar turned over to 2023. The Timberwolves are 9-4 SU and ATS in January and while center Rudy Gobert is considered questionable, we shouldn't overvalue his impact.
Gobert has a RAPTOR plus/minus of just +1.8 this year compared to the stellar +6.9 mark he had with Utah last season. He has a RAPTOR plus/minus of +4.5 on defense, so Minnesota is significantly better defensively with Gobert on the floor but that's almost offset by his -2.7 on offense.
Keep in mind that in seven games without Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns this season, the T-Wolves are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS. They also had a three-game stretch last week without Gobert where they knocked off the Raptors and Rockets while covering the spread as road dogs in Denver.
Minnesota's offense flows better without Gobert, and Anthony Edwards has been on fire lately, dropping more than 30 points in three straight contests. Meanwhile, D'Angelo Russell has recovered from a poor start to his season and is averaging 19.9 ppg on 48/44/94 shooting splits over his last 15 games.
Even if Gobert doesn't suit up, I'll take the points with the home pups against a Grizzlies team that has struggled on the road.
My best bet: Timberwolves +3 (-110 at PointsBet)
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Grizzlies vs Timberwolves spread analysis
The Grizzlies have lost four in a row and are fresh off a 122-120 loss to Golden State. At least they managed to keep things close in that contest after getting destroyed by 33 points in Sacramento on Monday.
Despite the continued absence of Towns, Minnesota has played well since the start of the New Year going 9-4 SU and ATS. However, Gobert has been a key part of that success and he's listed as questionable for tonight with a groin injury.
The Grizzlies are missing their own starting center in Steven Adams, but Brandon Clarke is a solid replacement and had 19 points and eight boards against the Warriors.
Ja Morant leads Memphis with 27.3 points and 8.0 assists per game. Even with Morant's dynamic play with the ball, the Grizz are a modest 11th in the NBA in offensive rating. They've been better on the other end of the floor, where Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr. help them hold opponents to a league-low 44.7 FG%.
Edwards (24.5 ppg, 4.5 apg) and Russell (17.6 ppg, 6.2 apg) give the T-Wolves a talented backcourt while forward Kyle Anderson is a Swiss Army Knife and is averaging 5.7 rpg and 5.6 apg in January.
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves Over/Under analysis
The total is sitting at 238.5, which might seem a tad too high when you consider that the Grizzlies are second in the league in defensive rating.
However, with how up-tempo these sides like to play, the Grizzlies' recent struggles on defense, and the Timberwolves possibly missing Gobert, it makes sense.
Memphis plays at the fourth-fastest pace in the NBA while Minnesota plays at the sixth-fastest.
The Griz have also surrendered more than 120 points in three of their last four games and allow 116 ppg on the road — significantly worse than their 108.8 ppg allowed at home.
The T-Wolves have played nine games without Gobert this season, and while they've given up 117.1 ppg in those contests they've also scored 120.8 ppg on 51.2% shooting.
That said, the Under has cashed in four consecutive meetings between these Western Conference foes with none of those games seeing more than 220 points scored.
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves betting trend to know
The Grizzlies are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team with a winning home record. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves.
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves game info
|Location:||Target Center, Minneapolis, MN|
|Date:||Friday, January 27, 2023|
|Tip-off:||7:30 p.m. ET|