Grizzlies vs Mavericks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Bane Bears Down Without Morant

The Memphis Grizzlies spent the first 25 games of the season knowing Ja Morant wasn't walking through that proverbial door to save them. They can now spend its final 46 games doing the same.

Diagnosed with a torn labrum, Morant will have season-ending surgery, punctuating a truly lost 2023-24 for the Grizzlies, tilting their NBA odds, and serving them up as lottery fodder for currently competitive franchises.

One such franchise is the Dallas Mavericks, aiming to extend a three-game win streak in an effort to help avoid the play-in come April. 

Find out if Memphis can help Luka & Co.'s cause tonight as I break down my free NBA picks for Grizzlies vs. Mavericks on Tuesday, January 9. 

Grizzlies vs Mavericks odds

Grizzlies vs Mavericks predictions

With Ja Morant done for the season, the Grizzlies' campaign now mostly becomes a chase for lottery equity, hopefully adding a high draft pick to stock their trade market coffers for a wing upgrade when Ja, Steven Adams, and Brandon Clarke are all back in the fold next season. 

Memphis was woefully inept offensively without Morant's dynamic slashing and playmaking, routinely gumming up in the halfcourt — absent any player who could reliably test the defense and create his own shot.

Desmond Bane was regularly called on to bail the offense out in such situations, and he definitely leveled up as an off-the-bounce creator for himself. However, Bane's recent explosion as a playmaker may be more of a flash in the pan. 

We're seeing sportsbooks post Desmond Bane odds for assists at too high a number, tabbing him for 6.5 with at least one outlet offering even money on the Under, with which we have plenty of angles to target.

The first is that we're probably seeing market inflation for two reasons:

• Bane anomalously ripped off 21 assists in a two-game stretch last week, including a career-high 13 against the Lakers
  
  
• The basic assumption is Bane will have higher usage with Morant out, leading to more playmaking opportunities.

But the truth is that most of Bane's usage will be to create his own shot. It's not only what he does best, but what Memphis so often relies on in non-Morant minutes to prop up its offense. 

Bane averaged 5.29 assists per game in Morant-less games this season, safely below tonight's total, and even that number was inflated by Memphis' tragic point guard situation — not only down Morant, but also Marcus Smart and Derrick Rose for large chunks of this season. Bane, as one of the few competent ballhandlers left on the roster, was thrust into more of a playmaking role out of pure necessity. 

Smart's now at least back to assume the role of de-facto playmaker, which should put less onus on Bane to create for others. Covers' player prop projections slot him for 5.6 assists tonight, going against a Mavericks team that seems to have woken up since an embarrassing 37-point loss to Utah, beating the snot out of the Blazers in consecutive games before then toppling the West-leading Timberwolves.

Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama are also questionable and doubtful, respectively, potentially removing two of the Grizzlies' more capable shot creators. It may be on Bane to do the damage himself here.

Let's not discount the chance that Memphis — still reeling from the Morant news — just gets destroyed, and Bane's hibernating by the fourth quarter.

As such, I'm also backing Dallas to come out of the gates running and build a big early lead. Memphis is a notoriously slow-starting team (NBA-worst 11-25 against first-half spreads) and has every reason — both spiritually and in terms of the matchup — to fall flat early. 

The Mavs — who have been ahead at the break in 13 of their past 16 games — should nuke the hapless Grizzlies, who can't hope to compete on offense, in the early going (more on that below).

My best bets: Mavericks first half -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings) and Desmond Bane Under 6.5 assists (+100 at DraftKings)

Grizzlies vs Mavericks same-game parlay

Desmond Bane Under 6.5 assists

Mavericks first half -4.5

Luka Doncic Over 3.5 threes made

20% boost available

+445 +534 at DraftKings

With two best bets above, I have two legs of my SGP conveniently built out. And what's even better, DraftKings is offering a Stepped-Up SGP boost that juices potential profit here by an extra 20%!

The Grizzlies have taken hit after hit over the past calendar year — effectively having two seasons snatched from them right as they were threatening to contend for a title — and are rightfully probably feeling frustrated and lost right now.

Meanwhile, the Mavs look to be firing on all cylinders. Kyrie Irving is back after playing just three December games, bolstering the kind of offense (avg of 126.5 ppg since Irving's return) the Ja-less Grizzlies just don't have to manpower to trade blows with.

I'll round out this SGP by backing Luka Doncic odds to top 3.5 threes, as his volume has been trending up of late (11.37 attempts per game in December/January after 9.1 in November). Memphis defends the three at a Bottom 6 rate, and while Luka figures to see lots of coverage from Smart, he also just canned five triples against the NBA's best defense and shouldn't be shook by a team whose perimeter defense has been a general question mark all season.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Grizzlies vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

A handful of books had odds posted Monday evening, opening the spread in the 4.5-point range, before the Morant news broke hours later and drove the spread to a market consensus of 8.5.

Jackson sitting would only further strip an offense that, either way, will struggle mightily to keep up with a Mavericks team that's flat-out one of the best offenses in the league with Luka and Kyrie together. Memphis is a Bottom 5 team ATS this season (15-21), and while it performs slightly better on the road (11-9 ATS), this game has letdown spot written all over it after the Grizzlies shocked Phoenix in their last game and got the mother of all deflating news with Morant last night. 

I've included Dallas 1H -4.5 in my SGP, so I'd lean with the Mavs if betting the full-game spread. The total, however, I'd stay well away from. Especially if JJJ sits, this just isn't a Memphis roster that can hope to do its part in a 234.5 Over/Under. The possibility of a blowout and Dallas resting its guns for the home stretch only renders the handicap more nebulous and makes me hesitant to want to pull the trigger on the Mavs team total either.

Grizzlies vs Mavericks betting trend to know

The Mavericks have hit the first-half moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.5 units/29% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Mavericks.

Grizzlies vs Mavericks game info

Grizzlies vs Mavericks latest injuries

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