Logic should expect the Oklahoma City Thunder to win Game 5. They are favored by 9.5 points, just as Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle expected.
But Indiana has made Oklahoma City earn everything in this series, much of it coming ugly. My Pacers vs. Thunder props and NBA picks expect some more ugliness in Game 5 at 8:30 ET on Monday, June 16.
Best Pacers vs Thunder props
Dort u1.5 threes (+130)- Gilgeous-Alexander u6.5 assists (-125)
Toppin o1.5 threes (+120)
Pacers vs Thunder player props for June 16
Lu Dort Under 1.5 threes (+130 at bet365)
The Indiana Pacers defense is finally getting its due. It ranked No. 3 in opponent 3-point attempt rate after the All-Star Break and No. 4 in opposing 3-point percentage in that same stretch, with foes making just 34.5% of their attempts from beyond the arc.
No wonder the Oklahoma City Thunder have taken just 38 total threes in their last two games. Hoisting from deep on just 24.2% of shot attempts is an absurdly low number, even against the Pacers. Indiana held its first three postseason opponents to shooting from deep on 40.8% of their shot attempts.
Of course, OKC wasn't reliant on threes coming into this series, taking them on a middling 40.6% of shots in the postseason.
Those trends have tightened furhter for the Thunder, the logical direction for them to go if they were going to shift at all.
If anyone should be shooting more often, it's Lu Dort. He has hit 11 of 18 threes in this series, 61.1%. But since going 5-for-9 in Game 1, Dort has shot less often, just nine 3-point attempts in the last three games, including just one in Game 4.
Dort’s reluctance is emblematic of Oklahoma City’s. An opportunity to capitalize on his hesitation at positive odds is one not to be ignored.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 6.5 assists (-125 at bet365)
Oklahoma City’s reluctance has also cost Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s assists tally. He has cleared this prop just once in the Finals. In the three other games, the MVP has totaled seven assists, cratering with ZERO in Game 4.
That happens when your team goes 3-for-16 from deep, in no small part because you are facing a defense designed to cut into perimeter success.
One could argue that winning Game 4 encouraged the Thunder’s bad developing habit. If they won without any success from deep, why would they start to emphasize 3-point shooting now?
They should, but there is little reason to expect them to. That is a natural side effect of relying on an MVP who is himself a liability from deep.
Gilgeous-Alexander has taken at least 20 shots in every game this series, 28.2% of the Thunder’s total field-goal attempts. That kind of ball dominance comes with risks, and one is how few other shots are in rhythm for the offense.
Oklahoma City is finding fewer and fewer of those shots, and that means SGA is handing out fewer and fewer assists.
Obi Toppin Over 1.5 threes (+120 at bet365)
Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City defensive design encourages 3-pointers, expecting its hustle and closeout abilities to hassle shooters enough to miss their shots.
But Obi Toppin has not been much bothered by those closeouts. He has hit 8 of 21 threes, 38.1%, clearing this prop in two of four games in this series. If backing Toppin every game, you have pocketed 1.3 units.
Toppin has attempted at least five 3-pointers in three of four games. As long as he is shooting that frequently — as OKC encourages him to do — it's more likely than not that Toppin will hit multiple 3-pointers.
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Pacers vs Thunder betting resources
- Pacers vs. Thunder prediction
- Pacers vs. Thunder first basket picks
- Pacers vs. Thunder same-game parlay picks
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander picks
- Tyrese Haliburton picks
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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