The matchup of the best big in the Oklahoma City Thunder rotation and the best big in the Indiana Pacers rotation has been a tale of two series so far. Myles Turner handily won the first two games, and then Chet Holmgren handily won that matchup in Games 3 and 4.
Both teams should emphasize that matchup early in Game 5, which is why my Pacers vs. Thunder first basket predictions and NBA picks lean to that duo to kick off the scoring on Monday, June 16.
Pacers vs Thunder first basket picks
Click on each name to jump to the full analysis
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Indiana Pacers
First basket pick: Myles Turner (+800 at bet365)
Myles Turner is not seen as a first-basket threat, part of why his odds are as long as +1,000. He took the first shot in just eight of the 91 games he started this season and postseason. But note: He made seven of those eight shots.
Turner struggled in Game 4, going 3-of-10 and 0-of-6 from deep. Before that game, he was shooting 38.2% from deep in the playoffs and had hit at least one 3-pointer in 18 of 19 games, also going 0-of-6 in Game 3 against Milwaukee.
He was on the board on Indiana’s third possession in Game 4 and led the Indiana Pacers in scoring with 23 points in that 26-point win.
Indiana needs Turner to be an offensive stressor for Oklahoma City. Taking anything away from Holmgren sets up the Pacers for that much more success.
Finding a way to establish that early on in Game 5 would go a long way toward furthering Indiana’s upset hopes.
Oklahoma City Thunder
First basket pick: Chet Holmgren (+500 at bet365)
The easy analysis looking at Chet Holmgren is that he has taken the first shot in nine of the 51 games he has started this season and postseason. Better yet, he has made all nine of those.
The deeper analysis on Holmgren ponders if he solved Turner heading into Game 3. Turner outright won that matchup to start the series, holding Holmgren to 21 points in the first two games on 8-of-20 shooting.
Holmgren then got more aggressive in Games 3 and 4, scoring 34 points on 10-of-24 shooting. It should also be noted that he collected four offensive rebounds in Game 4, a viable path to a first basket, as well.
The Oklahoma City Thunder need Holmgren to be an established presence. With him, the backcourt duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams becomes that much more difficult to defend. Without Holmgren drawing attention, Turner can help pack the paint against an Oklahoma City roster reluctant to shoot from deep.
Emphasizing Holmgren early would reap late rewards for the Thunder.
Pacers vs Thunder first basket odds
- Chet Holmgren (+500)
- Jalen Williams (+500)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+600)
- Isaiah Hartenstein (+700)
- Pascal Siakam (+700)
- Myles Turner (+800)
Odds courtesy of bet365
