The Milwaukee Bucks will look to capture the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy when they host the Phoenix Suns in Game 6 of the NBA Finals at Fiserv Forum on Tuesday night. With the way these last few games have been, you’re going to want to be in front of your televisions for tip-off.
Will Phoenix, a road underdog in a must-win contest, find a way to force Game 7?
Find out with our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Suns vs. Bucks on July 20.
Suns vs Bucks game info
• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Tuesday, July 20, 2021
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Suns vs Bucks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonUPDATE 6 P.M. ET TUESDAY: William Hill US hasn't budged off its late-Saturday-night opener of Bucks -5, while the underdog Suns attract 61 percent of spread bets and 68 percent of spread dollars. "The spread and moneylines have been like rocks at those numbers," WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said, noting the moneyline was pinned to Bucks -200/Suns +175 until early this evening, when it dipped to -190/+170. "We’re high on the Suns [on the spread]. I’m a little surprised that they’re taking the 'dog here. I guess they feel it’s been a very close series, and that Phoenix will find a way to keep this game close, too, even with Milwaukee having all the momentum." The total opened at 223 and got to 222 this afternoon, although the Over is getting 55 percent of bets/72 percent of money. "We’re definitely going to need the Under again. They’ve been betting the Over the entire series," Bogdanovich said. "There hasn’t been sharp money on the Under yet, but I think they’re waiting for the total to go up. There has been sharp money during the series for the Under, so I just think they’re waiting for a bigger number."
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET MONDAY: The Bucks went up as 5-point favorites early Sunday at BetMGM Nevada, and that's where the number remains at 1 p.m. ET Monday, ahead of Tuesday's Game 6. An early $77,000 bet on Suns +5 didn't move the needle. "Tickets are almost dead even, but the money is skewed by that big bet. If not for that, money would be dead even," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said, while noting Suns moneyline +170 is also drawing early interest. "Tickets are almost 4/1 and money is 4/1, too." The total is down a point to 222, with ticket count and money running 2/1 on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameSuns vs Bucks series odds
Suns: +320
Bucks: -380
Suns vs Bucks betting preview
Injuries
Suns: Dario Saric F (Out).
Bucks: Donte DiVincenzo G (Out).
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Betting trend to know
The Suns are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Bucks.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Every quarter in Game 5 felt like four separate games between these teams. Phoenix got off to an extremely hot start in the first, but the team then took its foot off the gas and let Milwaukee dominate the second. Then, the Bucks put on an all-time shooting performance to create some separation in the third, and the fourth featured the Suns coming up just short of pulling off a late, miracle comeback.
Phoenix now finds itself in the rare position of fighting for its season, as this is the first time the Suns have faced elimination in these playoffs. While it’s fair to assume that losing three in a row will have this team feeling completely deflated, it's worth pointing out that Phoenix didn’t lose four games in a row all season. The Suns also had the best road record in basketball during the regular season, and they also were victorious in Game 6 against both the Los Angeles Lakers and the Los Angeles Clippers. Both of those games came on the road. That’s not to say that Phoenix is a lock to win this game outright, but it is hard to imagine the Suns not keeping it close with their season on the line.
The Suns also seemed to figure some things out in the fourth quarter of Game 5. Phoenix had already been taking advantage of Brook Lopez’s minutes offensively, but the Suns seemed to find some success when Milwaukee turned to Giannis Antetokounmpo at center. Those slight adjustments featured Phoenix having Deandre Ayton roll harder to the basket and just picking up the pace overall. Also, the Bucks can’t set their defense when the Suns get out and run, so look for Phoenix to pick things up a bit — even if Chris Paul isn’t moving very well at this point in the series.
Another thing to keep an eye on is whether or not Devin Booker will open the game defending Khris Middleton. Booker did surprisingly well when switched on him later in the game, and that allowed the Suns to throw Mikal Bridges on Jrue Holiday, who was lighting them up all game.
Again, the Bucks are still very much in a good position to come away with a win in this game. But the Suns have been right there in each of the last two, and they’re not going to roll over now. They’re a great play with this big of a spread and are worth a small sprinkle on the moneyline.
PREDICTION: Suns +5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
These offenses couldn’t be stopped in Game 5, as the Suns shot 55.2 percent from the floor and the Bucks shot 57.5 percent. The third quarter explosion by Milwaukee really changed things for total bettors, as the Bucks weren’t missing shots and it forced the Suns to pick up the pace just to try to keep up.
In a Game 6 in which Phoenix will be fighting for its life, look for things to be a bit more intense. The Suns know that they need to play a lot harder in order to get back in this series. They showed a lot of fight in the first quarter of Game 5, but they lost that mental edge immediately and never got it back.
Look for Ayton to be much more of a presence in mucking up this game. He was indirectly called out following Phoenix’s last loss, and he needs to make a greater impact as both a rebounder and rim protector.
PREDICTION: Under 221.5 (-110)
First half spread
With the Suns being the more desperate team here, expect them to come out with a lot of energy and try to impose their will early on.
Phoenix was able to jump all over Milwaukee in Game 5, but the team was unable to maintain that level throughout the entire game. However, the Suns know they need to get off to a good start in this game.
With the Bucks set to have an insane crowd on hand for this one, the Suns won't be able to recover if they let Milwaukee get off to a hot start. Count on the Suns to show up and for this first half to be tight.
PREDICTION: Suns +2.5 (-106)
Suns vs Bucks betting card
- Suns +5 (-110)
- Under 221.5 (-110)
- Suns +2.5 (-106)
Picks made on 7/19/2021 at 4:15 p.m. ET
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