The NBA Finals is now a best-of-three series between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder.
If the Thunder are to capitalize on their own floor in Game 5 and put Indiana on the ropes, my Pacers vs. Thunder predictions believe they need an all-around effort, including a boost off the bench from “super sub” Alex Caruso.
Here are my best NBA picks for Monday, June 16.
Who will win Pacers vs Thunder Game 5?
The longer this series goes, the better it is for Indiana. However, OKC showed it can rally in the final quarter with a comeback win in Game 4.
The Thunder may not cover this sizable spread, but they can pick up the victory in a vital Game 5.
Moneyline prediction: Thunder will win (-425 at bet365)
Pacers vs Thunder prediction
My best bet: Alex Caruso 10+ points & 3+ rebounds (+105 at bet365)
The Oklahoma City Thunder experimented with their bigger lineup, installing 7-footer Isaiah Hartenstein back into the starting five to begin Game 4. That was a mistake.
The Indiana Pacers' quickness exposed that lumbering lineup and jumped out to a quick lead to start Friday’s contest. Oklahoma City had to course correct and match the Pacers’ energy, and it was Alex Caruso who once again logged 30-plus minutes off the bench.
He made the most of that run, scoring 20 points on 7-for-9 shooting along with a 5-for-7 night from the foul line.
Caruso may come off the bench for OKC, but the scrappy guard is on the floor when it matters. He logged 16.5 minutes in the second half, and 10 of those came in the fourth quarter.
With the margin for error even slimmer in Game 5, don’t expect head coach Mark Daigneault to go back to his "double bigs" rotation. As the pressure mounts, the Thunder will lean on the guys who have performed well in the finals, and Caruso has definitely earned his action.
“He’s a competitive monster,” Daigneault said of Caruso’s Game 4 efforts. “And he has proven that time and again, over his career. Certainly, in these playoffs. He was huge tonight, offensively, early in the game.”
The 6-foot-5 guard is averaging just shy of 15 points and 4.3 rebounds through the first four games, and Game 5 player projections for Caruso call for another double-digit scoring effort and three boards on Monday.
So far, he’s put up at least 10 points and three rebounds in three of four NBA Finals showings.
Pacers vs Thunder same-game parlay
Alex Caruso 10+ points
Alex Caruso 3+ rebounds
Alex Caruso 3+ assists
Caruso has scored eight, 11, 20, and 20 in the first four games, and he’s logging more and more minutes as the series goes on.
Caruso is averaging around eight rebounding chances per game for the Finals and has pulled down at least three rebounds in all four games.
Oklahoma City registered a lot of assists in the Game 4 win, and Caruso should secure his share.
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Pacers vs Thunder odds
Pacers vs Thunder live odds
Pacers vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +9.5 | Oklahoma City -9.5
- Moneyline: Indiana +325 | Oklahoma City -425
- Over/Under: Over 222.5 | Under 222.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pacers vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- Following their win in Game 4, the Thunder opened as 9.5-point home chalk for Game 5. Oklahoma City is 8-3 ATS at home this postseason, but just 4-3 ATS when laying -9.5 or higher.
- The Game 5 total hit the board at 222.5 points. This is a lowest total of the series after the first four games finished 1-3 Over/Under.
- According to Covers Consensus data, 60% of early picks are taking the pile of points with the Pacers while 63% of total picks are taking the Over.
Pacers vs Thunder trend
The Pacers are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS when coming off a loss during this playoff run. Those games have gone 4-1 Over/Under. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Thunder.
How to watch Pacers vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Monday, 6-16-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Pacers vs Thunder latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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