After dropping Game 3 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, the Oklahoma City Thunder roared back from the brink in Game 4 to deliver a decisive win over the Indiana Pacers with a ferocious fourth-quarter flurry.
Winning Game 5 will be crucial to take control of the series, and tonight’s three Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player props and NBA picks expect the reigning MVP to make a statement back at Paycom Center.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 8.5 first-quarter points (-120 at bet365)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander owned the opening frame in the regular season, leading the league in first-quarter points per game. He hasn’t been quite as prolific throughout the playoffs, and SGA has scored six or fewer first-quarter points in each of his last three games.
The Oklahoma City Thunder need to build an early lead and keep their foot on the gas to take down the Indiana Pacers.
Indiana has done a good job of making things tough for SGA in this series, holding him to 48.4% shooting after he shot better than 50% for the third straight regular season. Volume will be key, and I expect him to come out firing in the first quarter, looking for his shot and trying to draw contact.
The series is now a best-of-3 affair, with OKC holding home-court advantage once again.
According to NBA.com, teams that win Game 5 after being tied 2-2 go on to win the series 74.2% of the time. The winner of Game 5 won the series in six in four of the last five such instances.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 8.5 1Q points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 steals
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 2.5 turnovers
Gilgeous-Alexander finished third in steals per game this season after leading that category in 2023-24. He nabbed 1.7 per game and recorded multiple steals in 41 of 76 games.
He’s upped that number to 1.8 in the playoffs and recorded at least two swipes in 13 of 20.
In the Finals, the Pacers have surrendered 10.5 per game. SGA has recorded two or more steals in four of his last five games, and I expect him to play excellent defense yet again.
For as lethal as SGA is on offense, he doesn’t turn the ball over too often. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged just 2.4 turnovers per game in the regular season and committed two or fewer turnovers in 42 of 76 games.
In the playoffs, he’s committed three turnovers in just six of 20. He coughed the ball up six times in his Game 3 dud, but he’s totaled only six turnovers across his other three Finals matchups. Count on strong ball security tonight.
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Pacers vs Thunder betting resources
- Pacers vs. Thunder prediction
- Pacers vs. Thunder props & best bets
- Pacers vs. Thunder first basket picks
- Pacers vs. Thunder same-game parlay picks
- Tyrese Haliburton picks
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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