NASCAR eero 400 Predictions, Odds & Picks — Chicagoland Speedway

Robert Criscola - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Robert Criscola β€’ Betting Analyst 11+ years betting experience
Updated: Jul 5, 2026 , 09:50 PM ET β€’ 4 min read

Chase Briscoe has taken the checkered flag at the 2026 eero 400.

Driver Chase Briscoe (19).
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Driver Chase Briscoe (19).

Closing at +1800, Chase Briscoe has won the 2026 eero 400 at Chicagoland!

Last updated: Sunday, July 5 at 9:50 p.m. ET.

🏁eero 400: Key takeaways

  • Best post-qualifying bet: Zane Smith Top 10 (+400) — not a huge ask to gain six spots, generous price.
  • Best pre-qualifying bet: Ryan Blaney (+1000) — getting overlooked despite solid recent form.
  • Best pre-qualifying value: Michael McDowell (+295) over Chase Elliott — risky, but can't pass up the price.
  • Best pre-qualifying prop bet: Ty Gibbs Top 5 (+185) — rounding back into form ahead of Chicagoland debut.
  • Track: Tire management will be key on a worn, bumpy surface.
  • Weather: Fairly cool with a chance of thunderstorms.

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eero 400 odds: Favorites & full field

The eero 400 runs at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 5 on TNT. Below are the latest outright odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.

Driver DraftKings
Denny Hamlin +250
Tyler Reddick +350
Kyle Larson +400
Christopher Bell +1400
Ryan Blaney  +1400
Bubba Wallace +1500
Chase Briscoe +1800
William Byron +1800
Brad Keselowski +1800
Corey Heim +1800
Ty Gibbs +1800
Chase Elliott +2200
Chris Buescher +2200
Carson Hocevar +2500
Austin Cindric +6000
Alex Bowman +6000
Ryan Preece +8000
Daniel Suarez +9000
Ross Chastain +10000
Erik Jones +10000

Odds as of 7-5.

Check out the full eero 400 qualifying order.


Best bets card (updated Sunday)

  • Top 10: Zane Smith (+400) ❌
  • Outright: Ryan Blaney (+1000) ❌
  • Top 5: Ty Gibbs (+185) ❌
  • Matchup: Michael McDowell (+295) over Chase Elliott ❌

Who's hot? Who's not?

  • πŸ”₯ Kyle Larson — Top 5 in four straight races.
  • ❄️ Daniel Suarez — Just one Top 10 in his last five races.

Track breakdown: What wins at Chicagoland Speedway?

  • You'll see more cars riding the wall at Chicagoland Speedway than at most other 1.5-mile ovals, at least in Turns 1-2.
  • There are notable bumps in Turns 3 and 4, so most cars will hug the white line and not risk spinning out.

Key stats & driver profiles to target

  • Kyle Busch is the only driver to win the pole and the race (2008) at Chicagoland.
  • Ford has only won this race once (Brad Keselowski, 2014).

Drivers to watch

  • Kyle Larson (6.2) is the active leader in average finish at Chicagoland.

Odds movement & market notes

  • Corey Heim (+5500 to +1800) has been pounded down despite qualifying 28th, likely a massive overreaction to his last Cup Series start, which was his first-ever Cup Series win at San Diego.
  • Bubba Wallace (+2800 to +1500) has taken action after qualifying eighth.
  • Qualifying could play an even bigger part than usual in shaping the final odds, given there hasn't been a Cup Series race here in six years. Chase Elliott may see some action on race day, as he's the active leader in starting position here (9.5).
  • Chris Buescher is on the opposite end of the spectrum (24.3).

Outright picks: Winners to bet

Pick: Ryan Blaney (+1000)

Blaney can turn his solid, steady form into a trip to Victory Lane.

  • Track Fit: Sixth in average rating across the last 40 intermediate races.
  • Recent Form: Top 10 in five straight.
  • Market Value: +800 is acceptable.

Risk: Just one win all season.

Pick made on Saturday, 7-4.


Best top finish bets

Pick 1: Ty Gibbs Top 5 (+185)

Fresh off a Top 5 at Sonoma.

  • Track Fit: Four Top 10s at similar intermediate ovals in 2026.
  • Recent Form: Seven Top 5s this season.
  • Market Value: +150 is my limit.

Risk: Has never raced at Chicagoland.

Pick made on Saturday, 7-4.

Pick 2: Zane Smith Top 10 (+400)

Career-high in Top 10s already this year.

  • Track Fit: Back-to-back Top 10s at similar ovals earlier this season.
  • Recent Form: Mechanical issues, road courses have clouded his form.
  • Market Value: Still worth the squeeze at +300.

Risk: Has also never raced at Chicagoland.

Pick made on Sunday, 7-5.


Best matchup & head-to-head bets

Pick: Michael McDowell (+295) over Chase Elliott

Playable to +240.

  • Matchup Advantage: Elliott has only one Top 10 in his last seven races.
  • Key Stat: Excluding a wreck at Michigan, McDowell has a 10.7 average finish over his last seven races.

Risk: Elliott's overall Cup Series resume is far superior.

Pick made on Saturday, 7-4.


Best Top 10 parlay

Ryan Blaney Top 10

Ty Gibbs Top 10

Zane Smith Top 10

Nothing I saw from practice and qualifying dissuaded me from playing Blaney and Gibbs. I'm throwing in value pick Smith to really juice up these odds.

This parlay is playable at +1000 or better.


How to watch the eero 400

Location: Chicagoland Speedway, Joliet, IL
Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026
Start time: 6 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 eero 400.


Chicagoland Speedway weather

It should be a reasonably cool evening in Joliet, IL, with a high of 80F during the day, but there's a 35% PoP.


Previous eero 400 winners

Year Winner Manufacturer
2019 Alex Bowman Chevrolet
2018 Kyle Busch Toyota
2017 Martin Truex Jr. Toyota
2016 Martin Truex Jr. Toyota
2015 Denny Hamlin Toyota

eero 400 betting FAQ

When is the 2026 eero 400?

The eero 400 will take place at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 5.

Where will the 2026 eero 400 be held?

Chicagoland Speedway in Joliet, IL will host the eero 400.

Who is the 2026 eero 400 favorite?

Denny Hamlin is the eero 400 favorite.

Who won the eero 400 last year?

Chicagoland Speedway hasn't hosted a NASCAR Cup Series race since 2019, when Alex Bowman took the checkered flag.

How do eero 400 prop bets work?

In addition to outright win bets, many sportsbooks take action on Top 3, 5, and 10 finishes, as well as driver vs. driver props.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Robert Criscola - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Robert M. Criscola’s road to becoming a Covers publishing editor began with an internship at Metro New York, which eventually turned into a freelance job at MetroBet covering many sports from a wagering angle, including horse racing. He continued to focus on “The Sport of Kings” by writing for shapperdacapper.com, danonymousracing.com, and informer.fanxt.com before joining the team at the TwinSpires Edge in 2019 as a regular contributor and weekend editor. “Crisco” began writing game previews for Covers in 2022 and joined the editing team in 2023.

His best advice for sports bettors? Bet with your head, not over it.

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