NASCAR Cook Out 400 Predictions, Odds & Best Bets — Richmond Raceway

Our NASCAR expert analyzes the Cook Out 400 odds, featuring Denny Hamlin as the +200 favorite, and delivers his Cup Series predictions for a race with massive playoff implications at Richmond Raceway.

Eric Smith - Contributor at Covers.com
Eric Smith • Betting Analyst
Aug 16, 2025 • 16:30 ET • 4 min read
NASCAR Cup Series Denny Hamlin
Photo By - Imagn Images. NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin.

The NASCAR Cup Series regular season's penultimate race is the Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway, which will be held under the lights tonight. USA has live coverage beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Denny Hamlin is the clear-cut +200 betting favorite, but we saw what can happen when drivers get desperate for a playoff spot at this track last year, when long shot Austin Dillon dumped Joey Logano on the last lap.

"Bubble" drivers like Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman, and Chris Buescher are all live in the Cook Out 400 odds, but will they top our free betting picks for Saturday, August 16? Don't miss our Cook Out 400 predictions.

Odds to win 2025 Cook Out 400

Driver bet365
Denny Hamlin +200
Christopher Bell +550
Chase Elliott +650
Brad Keselowski +650
Ryan Preece +1200
Ryan Blaney +1400
Kyle Larson +1600
William Byron +1600
Tyler Reddick +1600
Bubba Wallace +2200
Kyle Busch +2500
Josh Berry +2500
Joey Logano +2500
Chase Briscoe +2500
Austin Dillon +3000
Chris Buescher +4000
Alex Bowman +4000
Ty Gibbs +5000
Ross Chastain +6000
Carson Hocevar +6000

Odds as of 8-16.

Cook Out 400 field

A 38-car field will line up at Richmond this Saturday, with Jesse Love (No. 33) and Corey Heim (No. 67) joining the 36 NASCAR Cup Series regulars.

Denny Hamlin opened as the +400 betting favorite prior to qualifying, with Christopher Bell close behind at +450. Kyle Larson (+800) and William Byron (+900) are the only other drivers at single-digit odds.

Cook Out 400 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of bet365 as of 8-15.

Cook Out 400 pre-qualifying favorites

Denny Hamlin (+400)
Hamlin has finished second at Phoenix and Bristol and won at Martinsville and Dover, all short-style tracks. He also has six Top-2 finishes in his last eight Richmond starts, including three consecutively. He’s led at least one lap in the last nine Richmond races, too. Overall, five wins, 20 Top-5 finishes, 24 Top-10 results, and 2,367 laps led in 36 starts make him THE favorite. 

Christopher Bell (+450)
In nine Richmond starts, Bell has seven Top 6s, including sixth-place results in both races last year. He led 122 laps and finished first and second, respectively, in the summer race. He also finished runner-up in the 2022 summer event.

Kyle Larson (+800)
On short tracks this season, Larson has finished third (Phoenix), first (Bristol), fifth (Martinsville), fourth (Dover), and 28th (Iowa). He won the 2023 Richmond spring race after leading 93 laps. He’s also had five Top 7s in the last seven Richmond tries.

Cook Out 400 sleepers

Joey Logano (+1000) 
Logano has struggled on short tracks this season, including finishes of 13th (Phoenix), 24th (Bristol), eighth (Martinsville), 14th (Dover), and ninth (Iowa). However, at Richmond, the two-time winner has 11 Top-7 finishes in the last 15 starts, including a runner-up last spring and what should have been a win last summer before being punted by Austin Dillon in Turn 3 on the final lap, leaving him 19th. 

Chase Briscoe (+1200)
On short tracks this season, he finished 35th in Phoenix, ninth at Martinsville, fourth at Bristol, second at Dover, and second again in Iowa. In eight Richmond starts, he has no Top-10 finishes and no laps led with a 16.8 average finish, but all those were with SHR. 

Cook Out 400 fades

William Byron (+900)
He has one Top-5 finish in 13 Richmond starts and hasn’t led a lap here in 11 of 13 tries. He did lead 122 laps in the 2022 spring race and 117 a year later, but finished third and 24th, respectively. On the season, Byron finished sixth at Phoenix, 22nd at Martinsville, sixth at Bristol, 32nd at Dover, and first in Iowa.

Ryan Blaney (+1200)
This isn’t a strong track for him. Blaney has no Top-5 finishes in 14 tries with a best result of seventh in 2022. 

Chase Elliott (+1200)
Elliott is 0-for-17 at Richmond with six Top-5 finishes and eight Top-10s. He’s also only led 105 laps. 

Tyler Reddick (+2500)
On short tracks this season he has finished 20th (Phoenix), 18th (Bristol), 14th (Martinsville), 12th (Dover), and 19th (Iowa). His third here last summer was his only Top-5 result in nine tries. He was 10th in the spring for his only other Top-10 finish at Richmond. 

Cook Out 400 prop pick: Ross Chastain Top-5 Finish

With two smaller teams winning the last two years, why not Trackhouse now? Chastain finished third in the 2023 spring race and fifth last summer for two Top-5 finishes in his last four starts. On short tracks this season, he finished 11th at Phoenix, sixth in Martinsville, seventh at Bristol, and 11th in Iowa. 

Pick: Ross Chastain Top-5 Finish (+285 at DraftKings)

Popular motor sports futures odds

Richmond Raceway track analysis

The race returns to under the lights, which creates a track with more grip. That could, in theory, change some things than it would look under daytime conditions.

The Toyotas are the heavy favorites, with them sweeping the action at Richmond in 2018 and 2019 to go along with 10 trips to victory lane in the last 19 starts on the .75-mile D-Shaped Virginia oval, including Spring 2022 and 2024.

  • There's been only one last-lap pass for the win in the last 13 races here.
  • Five of the last six winners have started within the Top 8.

Cook Out 400 info

Location: Richmond Raceway, Richmond, VA
Date: Saturday, August 16, 2025
Start time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: USA

Previous Cook Out 400 winners

Chevrolet has won this race just twice since 2011.

Year Winner
2024 Austin Dillon
2023 Chris Buescher
2022 Kevin Harvick
2021 Martin Truex Jr.
2020 Brad Keselowski
2019 Martin Truex Jr.
2018 Kyle Busch
2017 Kyle Larson
2016 Denny Hamlin
2015 Matt Kenseth

How to make Cook Out 400 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Eric Smith - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Eric Smith has over a decade of experience in motorsports. Beginning with Bleacher Report in 2011 to becoming a nationally accredited motorsports journalist, Eric has been featured in numerous publications. His love of the sport helped spark a path to Covers in 2019 as an auto racing analyst providing insights into how to bet and who to be on the NASCAR scene.

NASCAR is a unique sport to wager on with the percentages of a win less than the 50-50 venture of stick-and-ball sports. However, Eric found a method to wager on multiple drivers to come away profitable in the end. His experience in the sport and his aforementioned technique has allowed Eric to decipher pages of data to compute a winner at a 70% clip.

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