Yankees vs Red Sox Predictions, Picks, Odds: Devers Stays Hot Against Bronx Bombers

The Boston Red Sox will attempt to stay on the fringes of the American League Wild Card race as they host their eternal rivals, the New York Yankees, on Monday night.

The BoSox currently sit six games out of the final Wild Card position with just 19 games left on their schedule. The Yanks are effectively out of the playoff race according to the latest MLB odds, sitting in the AL East cellar.

With two struggling pitchers on the mound at Fenway Park, this could be a classic slugfest between heated rivals. I’ve broken down what to expect on Monday night in my free MLB picks and predictions for the Yankees vs. Red Sox on September 11.

Yankees vs Red Sox odds

Yankees vs Red Sox predictions

Realistically, neither of these teams still has a shot at making the playoffs. A recent four-game losing streak all but sunk the Boston Red Sox's hopes, while the New York Yankees have long been out of the race despite playing better baseball as of late. Too little too late.

The Red Sox have found it difficult to stop opponents from scoring, surrendering an average of 7.6 runs per game over their last five games. Kutter Crawford, who gets the ball for the BoSox tonight, has a mediocre 4.36 ERA on the season that's unlikely to improve on Monday.

The Yankees will counter Crawford with Clarke Schmidt. The 27-year-old has pitched to a 4.54 ERA, though he can at least cling to the fact he has improved throughout the season after an atrocious start. However, Schmidt hasn’t been great as of late either, with a 5.96 ERA over his last five starts. 

That means we’re looking at two struggling pitchers meeting up at Fenway Park, a stadium that’s better for offense than any ballpark not named Coors Field. Extra-base hits and runs are easy to come by in Boston, and with opposing players hitting the ball hard off both starters, we can expect to see fireworks early and often tonight.

If anyone has ever watched the Yankees and Red Sox play, we also know that they’re not traditionally known for their tightly-fought pitcher duels. Over their last six meetings this year, the teams are averaging a combined 10.7 runs per game, and historically, these teams are especially prolific at Fenway Park.

Everything about this matchup points to a deluge of runs and struggles for pitchers on both sides all night long. Oddsmakers know this, and have set the total for tonight’s game at a healthy 9.5 runs. 

But that’s not nearly high enough to scare me away from playing the total. I’m taking the Over tonight in a game that should be wild, exciting, and filled with run scoring action from start to finish. 

My best bet: Over 9.5 (-113 at Unibet)

Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay

Over 9.5 runs

Devers 1+ RBI

Judge 1+ RBI

+524 at FanDuel

I’m expecting scoring on both sides, so I want to play a same-game parlay that reflects this. I’ll start by taking the Over on the total of 9.5 runs, then add in scoring props for the biggest names in both lineups.

First, let’s predict that Rafael Devers will knock in at least one run tonight. Devers has tallied 93 RBI in 135 games this season, including seven in nine games against the Yankees — a team he has battered to an OPS of 1.341 in 2023.

On the Yankees side, I’m going to the most reliable bat in the lineup in the form of Aaron Judge. While Judge has only played in 89 games this season, he has 58 RBI, including three in his three games against the Red Sox. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Yankees vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Boston opened tonight’s game at home as a -128 favorite. As of mid-afternoon on Monday, the consensus line is Red Sox -130, though you can still get odds as short as -125 if you shop around. The best available line on the Yankees for tonight’s contest is +110.

Both teams have disappointed this year, but New York in particular has underperformed in 2023. N.Y. has lost about 9.5 units on the moneyline this year, while the BoSox are down about one unit. 

While it’s not my favorite market for Monday, I’m leaning towards the Yankees on the moneyline. Of the two starting pitchers, Schmidt has shown a bit more consistency as of late, even if he’s hardly been a superstar on the mound. While New York's lineup has never lived up to its potential this year, it should find some success in Fenway against Crawford tonight.

The Over/Under for this game was initially set at 9.5 runs. While the total has jumped to 10 at times on some sites, the consensus remains at 9.5. The Over remains the favorite, as you can get the Under at -105 at many books. 

With the Yankees struggling to score runs this season, perhaps it’s not surprising that the Under has gone 71-65 in New York’s games. On the other hand, the Over is a robust 78-62 when the Red Sox take the diamond.

As I noted above, I’m playing the Over as my best bet tonight. These two teams have both been allowing a lot of runs as of late, Fenway produces a lot of runs, and these two starting pitchers are extremely shaky. 

Trend to know

The Over is 8-1-1 in Boston’s last 10 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox

Yankees vs Red Sox game info

Starting pitchers

Clarke Schmidt (9-8, 4.54 ERA): A former first-round pick by the Yankees, Schmidt is now in his first full season as a starting pitcher after splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen last year. Schmidt initially struggled in that role, putting up a 6.30 ERA in his first nine starts. He settled down starting in May, and outside of one bad start against the Atlanta Braves has been solid as for late. Last time out, Schmidt allowed three runs on five hits over 6 1/3 innings against the Detroit Tigers.

Kutter Crawford (6-7, 4.36 ERA): While Crawford still hasn’t become a frontline starter, his 2023 performance has shown marked improvement over his first full season in the majors. In a mixed role, Crawford has made 19 starts for the Red Sox, and has shown potential via a 1.165 WHIP while averaging a strikeout per inning. However, Crawford has struggled in recent starts, allowing five runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Tampa Bay Rays in his last start.

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