After a big win over the Boston Red Sox on Friday night, the New York Yankees will try to secure a series victory in enemy territory on Saturday.
New York will throw Carlos Rodon out as the starter, hoping for some continued dominance out of its rotation. Meanwhile, Boston will counter with the ever-intriguing Cooper Criswell.
Read on as my Yankees vs Red Sox predictions expect the two pitchers to thrive in our MLB picks for June 15.
Yankees vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
I’m a noted fan of Cooper Criswell, and you can make a very good argument that had the Boston Red Sox right-hander gotten some help from his defense over the first few months, he’d bring much better numbers into this game.
As it stands, Criswell wears a 4.13 ERA after a brutal end to May, but in 9 1/3 innings this month, he’s produced a much better mark of 3.86. That closely mirrors his 3.65 xERA according to Statcast, a figure that’s driven by competence on contact and a very low walk rate of 5.5%.
It seemed walks really contributed to Brayan Bello’s so-so outing on Friday, and the fellow ground-baller was decently effective around a two-run shot from Alex Verdugo in the first inning. Keeping the ball in the yard is imperative against the New York Yankees, particularly in a hitter’s park like Fenway, and Criswell's ground-ball prowess and expert command should keep the Bronx Bombers in check.
That leads me to Carlos Rodon, who, after a rocky start to his tenure in pinstripes, has begun to look like his old self. Yes, he’s allowing plenty of fly balls, but Boston’s hitting around 60 points lower against fly-ball arms and doesn’t pack enough of a punch in the power department to hurt the left-hander.
What you really like to see is that Rodon’s whiff rate jumped by over eight points in May, and it’s remained just as high in June. The Red Sox have also been extremely undisciplined at the plate over the last two weeks, punching out nearly 30% of the time against left-handers.
With two starters facing favorable matchups on the mound tonight, I'm expecting a low-scoring affair.
Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Carlos Rodon Over 7.5 strikeouts
Cooper Criswell Under 1.5 walks allowed
The Red Sox should Rodon out given their inability to make consistent contact, particularly against left-handers.
Meanwhile, Criswell has allowed more than one free pass just once all season. The Yankees may be a patient bunch, ranking second in the league in walk rate, but their numbers have come down slightly over the last two weeks.
Criswell continues to pound the strike zone with his contact-oriented approach. His changeup should also produce more swings and misses than normal given it’s the one pitch New York has struggled mightily against.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
Yankees vs Red Sox live odds
Yankees vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (-105) | Boston +1.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: New York -165 | Boston +140
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)
Yankees vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- After opening at -165, a steady injection of money has pushed the Yankees all the way up to -180 on Saturday afternoon.
- The total has also seen some drastic movement, opening at 9.0 and shifting down to 8.5 with plenty of movement towards the Under.
- The Yankees are accounting for 93% of the bets and 97% of the money wagered on the moneyline over at DraftKings.
- While the total continues to drop, 63% of the tickets and 62% of the handle is on the Over.
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Yankees vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have hit the game total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.50 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox
Yankees vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (9-2, 2.93 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Cooper Criswell (3-3, 4.13 ERA) |
Yankees vs Red Sox latest injuries
Yankees vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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