Max Fried has been a roller coaster ride this season, reaching extreme highs as well as surprising lows.
Fried has pitched well of late, though, and my Yankees vs. Red Sox predictions expect that to be the case once again facing off against a division rival.
Let’s break it down with my September 13 MLB picks.
Yankees vs Red Sox prediction
Yankees vs Red Sox best bet: Max Fried Under 2.5 earned runs (-115)
Max Fried has had an up and down season with the New York Yankees. He started the season lights out but really struggled through July and the first half of August, allowing hits and runs in bulk on a consistent basis.
Those struggles appear to be a thing of the past. Fried has allowed just five runs over his last four starts, three of which came against the AL leading Toronto Blue Jays.
Fried held a solid Astros team to one run, he held the Nationals to one run, and he blanked these same Red Sox over six innings of work. It’s been a pretty good run.
He should be able to keep it going Saturday night against the Boston Red Sox. They have not hit lefties well of late, sitting tied with the Pittsburgh Pirates for 19th in wOBA since August 1.
They have generated next to no power, ranking 26th in ISO and 29th in fly ball rate during that span. They’re not putting the ball in the air, which makes it pretty difficult to produce runs in chunks.
If the power isn’t there for quick strike offense, the Red Sox will need to string together a bunch of hits to produce runs. That’s easier said than done as Fried has conceded just 4.5 per over his last four starts despite pitching seven innings in three of them.
Fried has allowed two or less in both starts against the Red Sox this season. Look for him to make it three in a row.
Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Brayan Bello has pitched very well against the Yankees this season, holding them scoreless in both starts.
He’s allowed 2.0 earned runs per game over the last 10 at home and high-end teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays were among the few teams to do any sort of damage.
Aaron Judge has three homers over his last two games. The Red Sox are likely to be careful with him, pitching around him more so than trying to attack.
That could lead to a walk or two and extra traffic on the bases for Cody Bellinger, who has RBIs in four of his last five.
Yankees vs Red Sox SGP
- Max Fried Under 2.5 earned runs
- Brayan Bello Under 2.5 earned runs
- Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 RBI
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: New York -130 | Boston +110
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+125) | Boston +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Yankees vs Red Sox trend
Max Fried has conceded two runs or fewer in 66% of his starts this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Yankees vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Saturday, September 13, 2025 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, NESN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (16-5, 3.02 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Brayan Bello (11-6, 3.12 ERA) |
Yankees vs Red Sox latest injuries
Yankees vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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