The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox clashed last weekend, and they're doing it all again this weekend, this time at Fenway Park. The Red Sox took the first game in this three-game set last night, and MLB betting lines opened with them as -135 favorites for today.
Clarke Schmidt will take the pill for the Yankees, while the BoSox will respond with Brayan Bello. The two pitchers started against each other last Sunday, with Boston winning 3-2. Here are my best free Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB picks and predictions for June 17.
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
Yankees vs Red Sox predictions
Adam Duvall mashed 38 homers in 2021 but had an injury-plagued 2022 campaign, and was aiming for a bounce-back year after signing with the Red Sox.
The power-hitting outfielder got off to a terrific start to this season, slashing .455/.514/1.030 through the first eight games of the year. Unfortunately, he injured his wrist diving for a ball and missed almost two months of action.
Duvall returned to the lineup on June 9, and while he struggled in his first few games back, he seems to be rounding into form after cracking two doubles in the last three contests.
Clarke Schmidt has struggled for the Yankees this season, pitching to a 4.70 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP through 14 starts. The right-hander is in the Bottom 20th percentile in hard hit rate while sitting in the Bottom 10th percentile in average exit velocity.
With the betting models projecting Duvall to hit about 2.8 total bases today, back the Over 1.5 at plus money.
My best bet: Duvall Over 1.5 total bases (+140)
Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay
Adam Duvall Over 1.5 total bases
Masataka Yoshida Over 0.5 hits
Brayan Bello Under 2.5 earned runs
Since I'm betting on Schmidt to get hit hard by Duvall, let's fade him against another Red Sox hitter as well. Schmidt is allowing lefties to bat .313, which is bad news against Boston outfielder Masataka Yoshida. The former Japanese League star is batting .309 in his first season in the majors and snapped out of a mini-slump last night by going 4-for-4 at the plate.
Brayan Bello looked sharp against the Yankees on Sunday, holding them to three hits and two runs in seven innings. He has allowed fewer than three runs in seven of his last eight starts and takes on a New York lineup that is struggling. The Yankees are dead-last in the majors in batting average (.203) since reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge hit the IL at the beginning of the month.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Yankees vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Yankees lost 15-5 last night and have now gone just 3-6 in their last nine games. They still have a 39-31 record and are four games ahead of Boston in the AL East standings.
When Clarke and Bello matched up against each other six days ago, the Red Sox were +104 road underdogs. But with the series switching to Boston, they are -135 home favorites today.
The O/U was 8.5 for that showdown and both starters looked very sharp, with the teams combining for just 10 hits and five runs. Nonetheless, the O/U for today opened at 9.5 before ticking down to 9.
The Yankees have been extremely streaky at the plate this season, and they have struggled to generate runs whenever Judge is out of the lineup.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet up to $2,500! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
The Red Sox are 18-5 in their last 23 home games versus a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs Red Sox
Yankees vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, June 17, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Clarke Schmidt (2-6, 4.70 ERA): Schmidt has gotten hit hard at times but has looked better over the last month, pitching to a 2.33 ERA over his last five starts. That said, he still had a FIP of 3.76 over that span, and his expected ERA sits at 4.43 on the season.
Brayan Bello (3-4, 3.78 ERA): The 24-year-old is showing improvement but is still a bit inconsistent from inning to inning and game to game. That said, he has pitched to an impressive 2.80 ERA with an OBA of .230 over his last eight starts.
