The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will continue their rivalry tonight at Fenway Park as Tanner Houck and the home side sit as slight -120 favorites vs. Domingo German & Co. The Bombers have taken seven of the last nine meetings against the last-place Red Sox.
Despite seeing Boston in his last outing and going 18 outs, German is not a long-leashed pitcher, and combined with today’s hitting conditions, is a very good target to fade tonight. But in which market should bettors look to fade him?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Red Sox on June 16.
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
Yankees vs Red Sox predictions
Domingo German just tossed six innings of one-run ball vs. the Red Sox five days ago, but getting those similar results in back-to-back starts vs. the same lineup is worth betting against.
German’s Under 16.5 out market has seen a lot of handle this morning, but there is still plenty of value there when THE BAT is projecting just 13.3 outs from the New York starter.
First is his leash. German does not have a 95-to-100-pitch leash, and has thrown 90 or more pitches just twice over his 12 starts this season. Because of that, he has to be very efficient to get through six innings, and facing an offense that saw him just five days ago favors the hitters a lot more than the pitchers. It's for the same reason pitchers usually get hit harder the third time through the order.
The Boston lineup will also be aided by solid hitting conditions at Fenway with high-70 temperatures and a 9-10-mph wind blowing out to left field.
The Under 16.5 is certainly the right side of things considering where the market is moving. But there's still value even at -145, as Pinnacle is at -175 at the time of writing. Considering the projections are well under 14 total outs, this Under still has value at 15.5 at even money or better.
My best bet: German Under 16.5 total outs (-145)
Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay
German Under 16.5 outs
Under 9.5
Red Sox moneyline
German is a low-pitch count pitcher who can hit this Under and still allow just three earned runs. Because the book judges these two markets as correlated (which they are, but the extent varies), bettors are getting a decent good multiplier here. (+375 here compared to the true odds of +238). The higher total also helps out a lot. THE BAT is projecting 13.3 total outs and 2.87 earned runs from German.
The Yankees offense is not producing without Aaron Judge and is a solid team to fade for runs. Tanner Houck does project well today and should flirt with 16 to 17 total outs before turning things over to a rested bullpen.
Boston's biggest disadvantage here is the starting pitching matchup, but since the projections are down on German there is value on the Boston moneyline, which the betting market has hit since the opening pick 'em line. Boston was +105 in New York last week in this same pitching matchup.
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Yankees vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This game opened as a pick ‘em in most places but the home side has taken some money, moving the moneyline to as short as -125 for the Red Sox. The Over has also seen some action, as Pinnacle opened at 9 and hit 10 this morning.
This is an easy moneyline to compare as today’s two starters met in New York just five days ago, where the Yankees closed as -120 home favorites in a 3-1 New York win with a closing total of 8.5. That would put today’s line just 25 points different than the last meeting which puts a little value on the Red Sox if you price home field at 20 to 25 points. It’s likely the reason bettors saw action on the Red Sox early despite not having the edge in starting pitching.
Boston does have the edge in offense, as they have a healthy lineup that currently ranks inside the Top 8 in runs/9, average, and OPS. The same cannot be said about the Yankees, who sit in the bottom half of the league in most offensive metrics and are still without Judge.
The reigning MVP has missed nine games, and the Yankees have scored just 31 runs while going 4-5 SU over that stretch. This lineup has been limited to three runs or fewer in six of those games, and scored just seven runs over the recent three-game set vs. Boston at Yankee Stadium (1-2 SU).
There is some value with the home side tonight, especially with how THE BAT is projecting German to struggle, which is the biggest edge New York has in this game on paper.
The weather favors the Over, but 10 runs is on the heavy side of things for a New York offense that is not the same without Judge. If bettors can get the 10, I think the Under is the side I’d prefer to be on. With both teams off yesterday, each corps of relievers are also fully available.
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Trend to know
The Under is 6-0 in the Red Sox’s last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs Red Sox.
Yankees vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, June 16, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Domingo German (4-3, 3.49 ERA): German has made 12 starts this year and has topped 89 pitches just twice. He saw the Red Sox in his last outing, which usually favors the offense the second time around due to familiarity. He has a 64:21 K/BB ratio over 67 innings, and the Yankees are 7-5 SU in his starts. THE BAT projects 75 pitches, 13.3 outs, 3.47 strikeouts, and 2.87 earned runs.
Tanner Houck (3-6, 5.23 ERA): Houck has allowed three or more runs in eight of his 12 starts this season and gave up two home runs in a start vs. the Yankees last week, which was just his second quality start of the year. He’s averaging 84 pitches per start and has a 62:22 K/BB ratio over 63 2/3 innings. The Red Sox are 5-7 SU this year when he starts, and THE BAT is projecting 84 pitches, 15.1 outs, 4.78 strikeouts, and 2.67 earned runs.
