The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles open a three-game set this evening with New York as a -116 favorite and the total hanging at 8.5.
Carlos Rodon throws his first big-league pitch since June 28, while Shane Baz carries a 4.00 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP into a rematch against a team that already tagged him for five runs this season.
My Yankees vs. Orioles predictions target Baz's platoon problem ahead of a game set to feature plenty of both bullpens. Read my MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 18.
Who will win Yankees vs Orioles today: Yankees moneyline (-116)
I like this spot for the New York Yankees, and I'll be backing them down to -130.
It's no secret, but the Yankees do two things quite well: draw walks and hit the ball hard. That's bad for Shane Baz, who's a bottom-quartile contact manager, and he gives plenty of free passes to lefties.
He ranks in the 12th percentile in average exit velocity allowed and the 21st percentile in hard-hit rate, and left-handed hitters are slashing .293/.351/.450 with 30 walks in 77.2 innings against him.
His changeup, the pitch meant to close that gap, has allowed a .350 xBA and .570 xSLG. Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. all attack from the side where Baz's contact suppression collapses.
COVERS INTEL: Shane Baz has leaned on his knuckle curve harder than ever at 32.7% usage, up from 26.9% last season, and it grades in the 12th percentile by breaking-ball run value.
Yankees vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-107)
This number is a run high, and the reason is Carlos Rodon's layoff.
The market is pricing 50 days off and a 75-to-85-pitch cap as an unknown. But the innings Rodon doesn't throw go to a bullpen with a 2.61 ERA and 1.12 WHIP rather than to a replacement starter.
Rodon still grades in the 84th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and his opponents' damage rate is the weakness meeting it. Run the underlying rates, and the total lands near 7.8. This isn't a large edge then, but I'm fine fading the Baltimore Orioles' offense given the situation and would play this to -116.
Yankees vs Orioles home run prediction: Ben Rice home run (+365)
Rice hit just his second homer of August on Sunday, but he's due for a little positive regression and is a solid bet to get some of that tonight.
He receives both a platoon and pitching-arsenal advantage in this matchup, making Rice hard to turn down. Baz's four-seamer is the pitch that leaks. He throws it 34.2% of the time and has allowed a 45.5% hard-hit rate and .422 xSLG on it, sitting 95.9 mph with only a 17.4% whiff rate. That's velocity without the ride to finish off anyone above the zone.
Rice crushes such pitches while leading all Yankees in overall barrel rate against high-velocity stuff.
- ML/RL bets: 43-43, +0.90 units
- Over/Under bets: 49-37, +13.59 units
Yankees vs Orioles weather
It will be warm at Camden Yards, and still winds mean the weather is unlikely to impact the game much.
Yankees vs Orioles odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -110 | Orioles +105
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Orioles +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Yankees vs Orioles trend
The Yankees have hit the moneyline in 24 of their last 40 away games (+5.70 units / 1% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles.
How to watch Yankees vs Orioles and game info
| Location | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, MASN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (4-2, 3.30 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Shane Baz (4-12, 4.00 ERA) |
Yankees vs Orioles latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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