The New York Yankees have won four of six heading into Saturday’s game against the Baltimore Orioles.
Still, after a loss on Friday night, they’re in danger of quickly dropping a big series to the team sitting atop their division. Can Clarke Schmidt come through for the Bombers?
I break down Yankees vs. Orioles in my MLB picks and predictions below.
Yankees vs Orioles odds
Yankees vs Orioles predictions
Tyler Wells has had a brutal time trying to pitch against the New York Yankees this season. In three starts, he owns a 5.82 ERA across 17 innings, but it really could be much worse. In each start, he’s managed to surrender at least two home runs, allowing seven in total.
It’s no surprise considering Wells is an extreme flyball pitcher, inducing them at a 35.7% clip, and the Yankees are one of the biggest flyball teams around. New York puts the ball in the air at the ninth-highest rate in baseball but more importantly, it ranks seventh in home run-to-fly ball ratio.
The thing is, Clarke Schmidt has had just as tough of a time in this matchup. He’s made three starts against the Baltimore Orioles this season, pitching to a 5.40 ERA in 13 1/3 innings.
The difference here is that Schmidt has only allowed two home runs against Baltimore, and he’s been steadily improving. He’s had 7+ strikeouts in two of his three starts this month, including one against Baltimore.
This is a nightmare matchup for Wells, and while I’ve taken the Over in every single game he’s pitched against the Yankees, I think a full fade is in order. Schmidt has been much better lately, cleaning things up in the home run and walk departments.
My best bet: Yankees moneyline (+105 at Caesars)
Yankees vs Orioles same-game parlay
Yankees ML (+104)
Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+235)
Clarke Schmidt to record 5+ strikeouts (+130)
We’ve covered the Yankees leg above, and using some of that same rationale, we can find some spicy odds with a same-game parlay.
I really like Judge to homer here. I know that’s not exactly a novel concept or a bold proclamation, but as I noted, Wells is an extreme flyball pitcher. Few do a better job of converting flyballs into homers than Judge, who should have a real chance to put one out at the hitter-friendly Camden Yards.
I’m also incredibly encouraged that Judge has already recorded eight hits in 19 at-bats against Wells in his career with three dingers.
On the other side of the ball for the Yankees, Schmidt has really been feeling it in the strikeout department. He’s had 7+ punchouts in two of his three starts this month, including one against the O’s. Baltimore is striking out in roughly 25% of its plate appearances over the last two weeks and should be easy pickings for the young Yankees right-hander.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Yankees vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I’ve taken the Over in every single Wells start vs. the Yankees, but I think the number is a bit too high here.
Wells really isn’t that bad of a pitcher, he just really struggles with home runs and is going to be up against one of the best home run-hitting teams in the game with Aaron Judge back in the lineup.
Wells has a great walk rate at 6.8% and his 25% strikeout rate helps cushion the blow of all the barrels he allows. The Yankees certainly haven’t been a very disciplined team at the plate over the last month and can’t be expected to run it up on Wells.
Schmidt has also recovered after a troublesome month of June that saw him strike out just 12.5% of batters. His strikeout rate has recovered and gone back up around 26%, where it’s been in every other month.
Baltimore has been strikeout-happy and ranks second worst in wRC+ over the last two weeks. The smart money is on the Under.
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Trend to know
The Orioles have hit cashed their full-game Under in six of their last eight games (+3.85 units / 43% ROI) Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles
Yankees vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, July 29, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Clarke Schmidt (6-6, 4.33 ERA): The 27-year-old owns a 4.15 ERA in 17 1/3 innings this month, and he’s sandwiched two poor starts against the Orioles around one good one which came a month ago. He’s walked just two batters in July.
Tyler Wells (7-5, 3.65 ERA): Wells has had a nightmarish July, posting a 5.89 ERA in 18 1/3 innings. He’s walked 10 batters and allowed four homers. While two of them came in his start against the Yankees earlier this month, they were both solo shots and the only two runs he allowed.
