For just the third time this season, the Yankees are an underdog. Despite having a record eight and a half games better than the Mets, the Yankees have earned it after losing six of the last eight games.
A loss Sunday will mean the Bronx Bombers have lost their last three series, topping their season total entering this stretch.
The Mets have won four of five and have a lopsided advantage in the starting pitching matchup. My Yankees vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks have the Mets getting the win on May 17.
Who will win Yankees vs Mets today: Mets moneyline (-108)
The New York Mets seek their fourth series win in the last five. They’re allowing 3.1 runs a game over that stretch, down from 4.2 and scoring nearly a run more. The New York Yankees hit below .200 over the last week with an ERA nearly half a run over their season average.
The Yankees shuffled their rotation, pushing Ryan Weathers to Monday and starting rookie Elmer Rodriguez, still in search of his first MLB win.
He’s walking nearly a batter an inning, trouble against a Juan Soto-led patient Mets lineup. The Mets counter with All-Star Freddy Peralta, who has a 3.10 ERA.
COVERS INTEL: Peralta is avoiding solid contact this season. His barrel rate allowed is less than half of last year’s and in MLB’s top 17%. His exit velocity allowed is in MLB’s top quartile and his best in four years.
Yankees vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
The Mets offense still ranks at the bottom of MLB in OPS and OPS+ and third from the bottom in runs scored, but they’ve picked up the pace. The Mets have boosted their scoring by 0.7 runs a game in the last two weeks (from 3.7 to 4.4) and have scored five or more three times in the last five games.
The Yankees are the mirror image. They still lead the AL in scoring but have managed three runs or fewer in seven of the last 10. And the Bronx Bombers’ pitching hasn’t been good enough to gut out those low-scoring games.
The Yankees haven’t won a game scoring less than four runs since April 28. They’ve lost their last seven such games and are 3-12 in them on the year.
- ML/RL bets: 12-18 -5.26 units
- Over/Under bets: 18-16 +0.49 units
Yankees vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Yankees +104 | Mets -108
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+163) | Mets +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-113) | Under 8.5 (+108)
Yankees vs Mets trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+6.15 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mets.
How to watch Yankees vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date | Sunday, May 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, SNY |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Ryan Weathers (2-2, 3.00 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Freddy Peralta (3-3, 3.10 ERA) |
Yankees vs Mets latest injuries
Yankees vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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