Yankees vs Mariners Picks and Predictions: Gerrit Cole Leads Continued Yankees Reset

The New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners get ready for Game 2 on Tuesday Night. 

The Yankees won last night against the Seattle Mariners 9-4, and they needed it. It broke a five-game losing streak for New York and helped them retake their double-digit game advantage atop the AL East.

Unfortunately, the Mariners were out of the game as the Yankees jumped on Logan Gilbert early with two runs in the first inning. 

Who will take the second of this series? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday, August 9, 2022.

Yankees vs Mariners odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Today’s odds opened with the Yankees as slight favorites at around -105. Since then, they’ve taken a good amount of money, falling to -130 at most locations.

The total opened up at 7 and has stayed the same since.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Yankees vs Mariners predictions

• Prediction: Yankees ML (-130)
• Prediction: F5 Under 3.5 (-120)
• Best bet: Yankees ML (-130)

Picks made on 8/9/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Yankees vs Mariners game info

• Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• Date: Tuesday, August 9, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, ROOT-Northwest

Yankees vs Mariners betting preview

Starting pitchers

Gerrit Cole (9-4, 3.56 ERA): Cole is a fun pitcher to wager on if you can pick your spots correctly. That’s because he’s constantly priced as an elite, dominant pitcher but is often an occasional nice fade. One of those outings was in his last start against this same Mariners team, where he barely got out of the first inning, giving up six earned runs and three homers.

Like many fastball pitchers, Cole has had issues with hard-hit balls and teams barrelling him up, all of which were on display in that last outing. Cole is boosting his elite strikeout rate at his best and getting batters to chase. Before that start in August, Cole was coming off the worst month of his season when he posted a 4.03 ERA in July. 

Luis Castillo (5-4, 2.95 ERA): New Mariner Luis Castillo got off to a good start with his new team. He faced this Yankees team and went five innings giving up three earned runs to collect the win. Castillo rarely had much game pressure on him as the Mariners collected him a first-inning 5-0 lead, but still, he was solid.

The strength of Castillo’s game is his fastball and getting to batters to chase that velocity in various parts of the zone. He’s coming off a July that was his best month of the season, where he posted a 1.93 ERA in 28 innings of work. There are not many holes in his game, but if you had to pick one, he probably gives up too many walks at a rate below average.

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

The Yankees are 36-16 in the their last 52 meetings in Seattle. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mariners

Yankees vs Mariners picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

This is a tricky one to handicap and one that I won’t have a ton of conviction with on either side.

You have a pitching matchup where there appears to be a straight-forward edge on Castillo. On the other hand, he's being opposed by Gerrit Cole, who is in pretty rough form. He just had his worst start of the season, but because of that, you’d have to think he is sitting on a big rebound game. So, we’re following our projections and rolling with the Yankees for the second night. 

For various reasons, Seattle has dropped in our MLB Power Rankings steadily for the last few weeks. I have doubts about them holding on to a Wild Card spot, which falls back to starting pitching along with the bullpen.

That shouldn’t be an issue with Castillo on the mound tonight, but it does give you an idea of how they’ve been playing coming into this one. As for Castillo, this will be the Yanks' third time seeing him this season. 

When they face pitchers for the third time, their batting average jumps from a season average of .248 to .288, their slugging percentage goes from .463 to .578, and their OPS goes from .785 to .390.

As for Cole, there aren’t many numbers to look at that make you want to back him. The Mariners gave him one of his worst starts of the season and probably one of the worst of his career, but because of that, it feels like there’s value here backing him in a “buy-low” spot.

He knows that after coasting for about a month, the Yankees suddenly have a reasonably important series in front of them, and he also has to know that he needs to deliver a good start. In addition, it’s not like the Mariners are some bad matchup; they hit the fastball at an average rate and strike out at a moderate clip. 

Our projections give the Yankees a 58% chance to win tonight, which is almost directly in line with what the market has moved them to. We’re backing the Yankees again tonight and following the sharp money.

Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-130 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

There’s another situational aspect here to back, which lends itself heavily to the Under. I will target the first five innings market in particular for the best value. 

Our projections see this game having three runs or less in the first five innings in 65% of simulations. That says there’s value on the Under 3.5, which is priced at around -120. But furthermore, the situation at hand is attractive. 

Castillo could have been more impressive in his first start against the Yankees. I called it “good” at the onset and still agree with that, but the Mariners didn’t trade for him to give up three runs in five innings regularly.

They traded for him to have more performances as he did throughout July when he posted an ERA of less than 2.00. We’ve already mentioned why Cole is an excellent option to back here and why you’d have to like him to get off to a strong start against an average Mariners offense. 

Humidity will be low again tonight as well as the temperature. I expect both pitchers to be close to their best and things to be very tight early on. Back the first five Under. 

Prediction: First five innings Under 3.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Like I did last night, I'm doubling down with the Yankees moneyline as our best bet and will also consider targeting them in the first five market if the number moves closer to -140.

We’re getting a unique opportunity to get Cole at a reasonable price because of his struggles of late. It’s anecdotal, but I firmly believe the Yankees are as locked in on this series as they’ve been all season after their recent struggles.

I anticipate a much tighter game than the one we had last night, but in the end, the Yankees will prevail. They are a considerably better team and need to continue to reset their season here. 

Pick: Yankees moneyline (-130 at DraftKings)

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