Giants vs Padres Picks and Predictions: San Fran Surprises Ice-Cold Friars

San Diego went all-in at the trade deadline... and proceeded to go freezing cold at the plate. The Padres need a win in the worst way, but our MLB betting picks for tonight sees the value with the Giants on the road.

Last Updated: Aug 9, 2022 4:58 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Joc Pederson San Francisco Giants MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres have pushed in the chips and acquired the likes of Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury. 

On paper, that added offensive power to an already intimidating lineup is incredibly terrifying but instead, the Padres find themselves amidst a five-game losing streak and a 23-inning scoreless streak. 

That included last night's 1-0 loss in the opening game of their three-game series with the San Francisco Giants, who have now strung together three straight wins after a 3-12 stretch. 

Can the Giants keep the ball rolling, or will the Padres bats finally wake up and make good on their trade deadline moves?

Continue reading for free MLB picks for the Giants vs. Padres matchup on Tuesday, August 9.

Giants vs Padres odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Padres opened as favorites in the -180 range and have moved a tad bit down since. The total opened at 7.0 and most books have now moved to a 7.5 with juice favoring the Under.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Giants vs Padres predictions

Picks made on 8/9/2022 at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Giants vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Tuesday, August 9, 2022
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
TV: NBC Sports Bay Area, Bally Sports San Diego

Giants vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Alex Cobb (3-6, 4.08 ERA): After promising flashes with the Angels last season, it led to a two-year $20 million contract with the Giants this past offseason. He has excelled at home (3.00 ERA) but struggled mightily on the road (6.03 ERA), and unfortunately finds himself in the latter situation tonight.

Joe Musgrove (8-5, 3.00 ERA): The Padres traded for Musgrove prior to last season, and he posted a career best 3.18 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He held a 2.09 ERA through early July, but things have been rough as of late, posting a 7.29 ERA in his last four starts.


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Padres have failed to score in 23 straight innings, and have lost five straight. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Padres

Giants vs Padres picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

On top of having a robust roster, the Giants made some key moves to improve their potential ahead of 2022.

One of those moves was the addition of Alex Cobb, one of baseball's pleasant surprises last year. What they have gotten from Cobb so far has been a mixed bag, to say the least. 

From the comforts of Oracle Park, Cobb has been extremely reliable, with six starts in which he has allowed one or no earned runs and just one start in which he has allowed more than three. He has put together a 3.00 ERA, 1.16 WHUP, and 10.4 K/9 rate in those appearances.

On the road, however, he has been an entirely different pitcher. Cobb has pitched to a 6.03 ERA on the road and has notched a 1.47 WHIP and a severely suppressed 7.8 K/9 rate as well.  

Less-than-ideal recent results aren't exclusive to San Francisco. Tonight, the Giants will face off against the Padres in the second game of a three-game set, and San Diego and Joe Musgrove have both had lackluster results as of late.

Despite adding the likes of Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury to their roster, the Padres have struggled extensively at the plate. On top of their now five-game losing streak, the Padres have also failed to plate a run in 23 straight innings. That will have to change tonight.

That is especially the case given how much Musgrove has struggled in the last month. After pitching to a 2.09 ERA, with the Padres 12-3 in those starts, Musgrove has since pitched to a 7.29 ERA in four starts — all Padres losses. 

With the Padres holding the final NL Wild Card spot by just a one-game lead, their hitting and Musgrove's pitching will need to turn it around immediately.

Expecting both to happen on the same night is a bit lofty, and given the struggles on both sides, it really doesn't make sense for the Padres to be as large of favorites as they are for tonight. 

Yes, the offense gets a juicy opportunity to tee off on Cobb, who has struggled on the road, but to his credit, he has pitched rather well in a limited sample against these hitters (60 combined plate appearances, .211 batting average allowed).

Ultimately, the odds discrepancy is unwarranted and it's hard to argue that the value proposition lies on any side but the Giants.

Prediction: Giants moneyline (+160 at WynnBet)

Over/Under analysis

San Francisco has played 53-50-6 (51.5%) to the Over, while San Diego has gone slightly toward the Under at 57-51-4 (52.8%). The Padres have, however, played extremely Under-friendly in home games at 31-23-1 (57.4%), which is the fourth-best mark in the league.

Given Cobb's struggles on the road and Musgrove's struggles as a whole in the last month, it may be best to look towards the Over in tonight's game.

Aiding that cause tonight is the projected weather. The humidity is expected to reach 75-80% and given that balls are stored at 50% humidity, that projects to help hitters get more distance on their barrels (more humid conditions allow the ball to travel further).

If just one of Cobb or Musgrove struggles, that bodes well for the Over on a relatively low total of 7.5. 

After all, San Francisco has posted the sixth-worst relief ERA in the majors at 4.39 and San Diego's has been the ninth worst in the last month at 4.09.

Prediction: Over 7.5 (+100 at PointsBet)

Best bet

There are a lot of ugly and discouraging elements to tonight's Giants-Padres matchup — enough to deter a bettor from taking either team.

On one side, you have Cobb's horrendous away splits. On the other, you have Musgrove, who has been slumping rather significantly in the last month.

On the offensive side of the matchup, you have the Padres, who have failed to score in 23 straight innings, while the Giants have posted just a .678 OPS in the last two weeks (19th during that span) despite playing the likes of the Athletics, Cubs, and Diamondbacks.

So, in an ugly game like this with an odds discrepancy as wide as tonight's, there really is only one way to play and that's in favor of the long underdogs.

Embrace the chaos and the favorable odds.

Pick: Giants moneyline (+160 at WynnBet)

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