Yankees vs A's Picks and Predictions: Bronx Bombers Bring the Pain to Oakland

With New York's payroll compared to Oakland's, it's no surprise the Yankees are the far better team. Tonight with Giancarlo Stanton returning and Gerrit Cole on the mound, we're taking the Yankees to win big. Read more in our Yankees vs. A's betting picks.

Chris Hatfield - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
Aug 26, 2022 • 16:17 ET • 4 min read
Giancarlo Stanton New York Yankees MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees and Oakland Athletics will meet for the second of a four-game set late Friday night.

Thursday saw an offensive explosion from the Yankees in a 13-4 win. New York is won four straight and maintains a 7.5-game lead in the AL East. Oakland is .500 in their last 10 games, including losses in two of its previous three.

Who will snag game two? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Friday, August 26, 2022.

Yankees vs A's odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

As you might imagine, the Yankees opened up as heavy favorites at -220. Since then, they have dropped to around -250 in some spots, with the A's returning at close to +200.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Yankees vs A's predictions

Picks made on 8/26/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Yankees vs A's game info

Location: RingCentral Coliseum, Oakland, CA
Date: Friday, August 26, 2022
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET

Yankees vs A's betting preview

Starting pitchers

Gerrit Cole (9-6, 3.41 ERA): We can safely say that Cole's season has been mixed. When he's been good, he's been outstanding and looked like his dominant vintage self. But we've also seen a few blow-up games where he could barely get out of the first few innings. All the peripherals are elite except one. That's his barrel rate, which is near the bottom of all starting pitchers in baseball. Beyond that, Cole has still been the fastball-throwing heavy-strikeout player you're used to. His strikeout rate and fastball velocity both rank in the Top 10% of baseball. In Cole's last outing, the right-hander went six innings and gave up four earned runs to the Blue Jays.

JP Sears (5-0, 1.93 ERA): Sears has been very good for Oakland this season, and the record and ERA tell that story pretty clearly. Since being traded from the team he'll face tonight, Sears has given up just three earned runs in three starts. However, the numbers show that they may be a bit window dressing. The most striking thing for Sears is his xERA that sets a shade over three innings. It tells you that he's due for some negative regression at some point. It is likely to come against an amount that can hit the four-seam fastball well, which has produced a 50% hard-hit rate for Sears.


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The New York Yankees have won four straight games and are currently in the midst of their lowest winning streak for August. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. A's

Yankees vs A's picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

I've had some success this season fading Gerrit Cole because he is continually priced as an elite pitcher when I'm not sure he's that anymore. However, this is not one of those spots. In my estimation, the Yankees are "back" officially, and the A's don't possess the qualities needed to attack Cole properly.

An assessment of the A's hitters reveals a few things that point to a pretty putrid offense. What's most pressing to this game, though, is their barrel rate. Oakland has the sixth worst barrel rate in baseball, and these are the matchups Cole has thrived in. He's made five starts this season in Yankee Stadium against teams ranking in the Bottom 10 of barrel rate, and has given up just one run.

Cole isn't as strong on the road — where he's given up just four earned runs in similar starts — but this matchup still suits him pretty favorably. Meanwhile, this could be a potential blow-up spot for JP Sears. The angle of the Yankees going against a former teammate makes me favor them, and the Pinstripes facing against a pitcher with fastball issues makes me favor them more.

Our projections give us just a 4% edge against the number. However, I think it should be more robust. I'm seeing another blowout on the horizon and will gladly back New York at the Coliseum tonight.

Prediction: Yankees -1.5 (-138 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight's game is one of my favorite bets on the slate. Over their past few matches, the Yankees' offense has been potent. They've scored four or more in all of them, and two of those four run showings came against two of the best pitchers in baseball.

New York also gets someone on the mound who is due for massive regression tonight. For starters, my projections have New York scoring over 4.5 runs about 60% of the time. Add in the fact that the winds will be blowing out in the Coliseum tonight, and the plus money price looks very appealing.

As I alluded to in the onset, Sears has a fastball problem. It hasn't hurt him this season much, but I think that's a product of luck more than anything. Holding a 50% hard-hit rate with a high-velocity primary pitch simply isn't sustainable in the long term.

The Yankees are also one of the worst teams in baseball to face when you have issues with your fastball. New York will field a lineup tonight with four batters hitting over .300 against the four-seam fastball on the season. In addition, with a healthy Giancarlo Stanton back in the lineup, they'll have six hitters with a hard-hit rate above 50% on these same pitches.

Take this plus money price on the Yankees tonight. It may seem a bit square to go all-on on New York in this spot, but we're still getting great value here. 

Prediction: Yankees team total Over 4.5 (+115 at DraftKings)

Best bet

I'm doubling down on the Yankees team total as my best bet tonight. As someone who has watched a good amount of JP Sears in a Yankees jersey and an Athletics jersey, I can't say no in this spot.

Whatever is ailed this New York offense during most of August now feels like it's finally been cured. I won't pass up a chance to back them at a total this low.

Pick: Yankees team total Over 4.5 (+115 at DraftKings)

MLB parlays

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