Following last night’s extra-inning 4-3 loss, the New York Yankees now find themselves in the AL East basement after 95 games for the first time since 1990. Now they’ll send Domingo German to the mound to oppose lefty Patrick Sandoval and the Los Angeles Angels as slight -115 road favorites.
With the New York offense reeling and striking out 17 times last night vs. Griffin Canning and the Halos’ bullpen, is another solid performance from an L.A. starter projected tonight, or should bettors continue to fade German, whose markets are moving south in the MLB odds?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Angels for Tuesday, July 18.
Yankees vs Angels odds
Yankees vs Angels predictions
Don’t let Domingo German’s perfect game from earlier this year fool you: this is still a short-leashed pitcher that needs to be extremely efficient to get deep.
The New York starter has thrown fewer than 90 pitches in 13 of his 17 starts this year and has already seen his total outs market dip today. Yet plenty of value remains on the Under 16.5 outs at -105.
Even without Mike Trout, this is a decent Angels offense that has great hitting conditions in a good hitter’s park. Mickey Moniak is filling in offensively for Trout and has an OPS north of 1.000 over his last 30 games. He is now hitting behind Shohei Ohtani, who went yard again yesterday.
Luis Severino needed 98 pitches to get his 18 outs last night. German has the shorter leash and is also coming back from elevation in Colorado, hasn’t pitched since July 9, and only threw 74 pitches in that start.
The market continues to fall on the Yankees starter, and THE BAT is projecting 85 pitches, 15.2 outs, 5.46 strikeouts, and 2.82 earned runs. A lot has to go right for German to get deep with his short leash.
My best bet: German Under 16.5 outs (-105)
Yankees vs Angels same-game parlay
German Under 16.5 outs
Sandoval Over 16.5 outs
Angels F5 +0.5
This is a trio of correlated plays, and although the true odds are +500, the multiplier could certainly be worse.
German struggles to get deep and hasn't pitched in nine days. He also threw just 74 pitches in that most recent start.
Patrick Sandoval is facing a weak and injured lineup, and his high groundball rate should keep the score low and the Yankees off the board.
I don't love the Angels' bullpen of late and think taking them at F5 +0.5 negates the edge the Yankees have in the later innings.
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Yankees vs Angels moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Halos won as -140 home favorites in extra innings last night after taking some money before the first pitch. Yes, this is a lineup without Trout, but compared to what the Yankees rolled out last night, this is the better of the two offenses. Domingo German is maybe a 10-point better pitcher than Patrick Sandoval, at best.
Tonight’s moneyline opened at -115 in favor of the visitors but some books are moving this to a pick ‘em, which is the side I’d prefer tonight. I wouldn't be surprised if L.A. closed as a -115 favorite in some places.
The Yankees lineup last night was tough to back and sported Oswald Peraza in the leadoff spot. It also had zero bats with an OPS above .755 and struck out 17 times — 12 of those coming against L.A. starter Griffin Canning.
It’s one of the worst lineups in baseball and currently ranks 25th in wOBA over the last 30 days. It is a big reason this team currently sits dead last in the AL East. There is no Aaron Judge, Josh Donaldson, or Jake Bauers.
German is also a pitcher that is easy to fade. He doesn’t throw many pitches and has hit the 90-pitch mark just four times through 17 starts. He also gives up more homers than Sandoval, and with the wind blowing out and decent hitting conditions at Angel Stadium, betting on the better groundball pitcher at this price should be considered.
The Angels’ bullpen has been slipping of late, which should come as no surprise after pitching above expectations early in the season. But with the F5 moneyline paying -110 and some books at -120, I’m happy to isolate the pitching matchup and take the home side on the F5 line.
The total has bounced around from 9 to 9.5, but has been bet back down to 9 multiple times after hitting the 9.5. The hitting conditions are good but neither team is sporting a deep lineup. The middle of the L.A. lineup with Ohtani and a red-hot Moniak is the better of the two sides, but there could be some quick innings with the bottom half of each order.
I’d strongly consider the Under 9.5 at -115 or better if available.
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Trend to know
The New York Yankees have only hit the first Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in nine of their last 27 games (-9.75 Units / -27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Angels
Yankees vs Angels game info
| Location: | Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 18, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Domingo German (5-5, 4.32 ERA): German is a short-leashed pitcher who has to be extremely efficient to get deep. His Unders almost always show value and his out market has moved from 17.5 to 16.5 today. He enters tonight averaging 82 pitches per start, and has a 92/28 K:BB ratio over 91-plus innings. He’s a flyball pitcher who is sporting his highest HR/FB rate in over three seasons. The Yankees are 9-8 SU when he pitches and THE BAT is projecting 85 pitches, 15.2 outs, 5.45 strikeouts, and 2.82 earned runs.
Patrick Sandoval (4-7, 4.41 ERA): Sandoval will be making his 17th start of the year and comes in with a 70/36 K:BB ratio over 85-plus innings and a 29% CSW rate. He’s allowed just six home runs all year. He’s seen his ERA grow a full run over his last five starts but is pitching to his early season projections with his current ERA and FIP. L.A. is 5-11 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 98 pitches, 17.3 outs, 4.93 strikeouts, and 2.79 earned runs.
