Let’s mix up today’s platter with a blend of team and player props.
I found a few players and teams tonight that carry a ton of value while also sitting in great boom spots, those being Yordan Alvarez, Chase DeLauter, and the Chicago White Sox in favorable matchups across tonight’s loaded slate.
Read on for my full menu of MLB player props on Tuesday, May 19.
Best MLB best bets today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Chase DeLauter |
Over 1.5 total bases | +125 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
Over 1.5 total bases | -112 |
 White Sox |
F5 TT Over 1.5 | -115 |
Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 total bases (+125)
One of the first props I locked in this morning was Cleveland Guardians rookie Chase DeLauter to go Over 1.5 bases.
The lone elite-rated hitter in this game draws a great matchup against Detroit Tigers right-hander Keider Montero, who is the sixth-worst-rated pitcher on the slate. The starter also sports subpar marks in average hitter matchup ISO, strikeout percentage, and ground ball rate. We love a poorly rated ground ball rate because we want DeLauter elevating the ball.
Over the last 30 left-handed hitters Montero has faced, he owns a 9.59 xERA and 6.14 xFIP, while allowing a 16.7% ground ball rate, 54.2% fly ball rate, and 29.2% line drive rate. Those lefties have posted a .356 xBA, .813 xSLG, and .472 xwOBA during that span.
To add insult to injury for Montero, DeLauter is batting at least .308 with an OPS of at least .964 and a wRC+ of at least 174 against 72% of his arsenal.
Playing away from home has been no struggle for the young buck, especially as of late. Over his last 60 plate appearances on the road, DeLauter owns a .333 BA, .415 wOBA, .943 OPS, and 33.3% line drive rate.
At +125 for a guy sitting in a massive boom spot, this is tremendous value for our MLB picks.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Guardians.TV, DSN
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (-112)
Now, I am not the biggest fan of paying juice for bases props unless it is for one base, then I am willing to pay it up to nearly $1.70. However, backing one of baseball's premier hitters to go over this number at -111 is worth the squeeze.
Yordan Alvarez is in a great spot on the road against Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews, who owns poorly rated matchup ISO, hard contact, and ground ball metrics.
Across Matthews' three-year career, only one pitch that makes up 13% of his arsenal has been valued above league average. To make matters worse, left-handed hitters have posted a .308 BA, .551 SLG, and .390 wOBA, while also carrying a 53% fly ball rate and 21% line drive rate at Target Field.
Against 64% of Matthews' arsenal, Alvarez owns at least a .400 BA, 1.450 OPS, and 311 wRC+. Against the remaining 36%, he still owns solid numbers.
Today marks Alvarez's 78th elite rating on the road. In the previous 77, he has recorded:
- 1+ Hit: 68.83%
- 2+ Hits: 38.96%
- 2+ Bases: 50.05%
- Home Run: 28.57%
The Astros slugger has surpassed this prop in five of his last 10 elite road ratings, per Batters-Box.
Pay the juice. Do not be scared.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, Twins.TV
White Sox F5 team total Over 1.5 (-115)
I am lost as to why the second-highest-rated offense on the day has its first-five team total set at 1.5. That's why I just had to sneak this team total prop into an MLB player props column.
Sure, the Chicago White Sox are coming off an incredible weekend beating the Cubs in the Crosstown Classic, but this is still a team that features four elite-rated hitters on Batters-Box's default ratings and six in the current season ratings, while drawing the third-worst-rated pitcher on the day. At this price and number, it already feels like a win getting this prop where it is.
In their last 12 games away from home against right-handed pitching, they own a 116 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .778 OPS, while posting an 8.9% walk rate, 40.7% hard-hit rate, and 14% barrel rate. Not to mention, this team ranks third in first-five scoring on the road, putting up 3.03 runs per first five innings.
Seattle Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo owns a 5.75 ERA while allowing 50% hard contact and a 13.3% barrel rate, alongside a 30% ground ball rate and 26.7% line drive rate at home. Opposing hitters also own a .276 xBA, .455 xSLG, and .349 xwOBA against him. Overall, the seasoned veteran has allowed 31 runs through his first nine outings.
While he'll be serving as the piggyback option behind Bryce Miller, that shouldn't derail our pick as the latter hurler is still finding his rhythm coming off an extended absence, so he'll give way to Castillo before too long tonight.
Again, we just need two runs!
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, Mariners.TV
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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