The Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs close out a short, two-game set at Wrigley Field tonight. The White Sox took the series opener last night but have struggled this season while the Cubs are gunning for a postseason berth.
MLB betting lines opened with the Cubs as -148 home favorites for the latest edition of the Crosstown Classic. Here are my best free MLB picks and predictions for White Sox at Cubs on August 16.
White Sox vs Cubs odds
White Sox vs Cubs predictions
With the wind at Wrigley factoring into today's total, we've seen the O/U tick up from 9.5 to 11. So it makes sense to look at some of the player props for value, especially on a Cubs lineup that has been mashing since the All-Star break.
Cody Bellinger has gone 0-for-6 at the plate in the last two games but still ranks fourth in the majors in batting average (.325) and eighth in slugging percentage (.551). The former NL MVP has been red-hot over the last month and a half, slashing .401/.441/.671 in his last 40 games.
The left-handed slugger should be poised for another big day at the plate as he boasts the platoon advantage against White Sox starter Mike Clevinger.
Clevinger struggled earlier this year but has put up some excellent numbers lately, pitching to a 2.01 ERA in six starts since the beginning of June. That said, his FIP sits at just 3.84 during that span and he allows plenty of contact sitting in the bottom 35th percentile in strikeout rate, xBA, and xSLG. Grab the Over 1.5 on Bellinger's total bases at plus money.
My best bet: Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 total bases (+125)
White Sox vs Cubs same-game parlay
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 total bases (+125)
Luis Robert Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Jeimer Candelario Over 0.5 hits (-185)
The Cubs are likely sending Javier Assad to the mound today and while the sophomore has some solid numbers this year, his peripherals are average. He was fortunate that the Blue Jays couldn't make contact against his offerings, which sailed across the plate in his last start, and he looks prime for regression.
With this total sitting at a whopping 11, let's fade the pitching and grab the Over on several red-hot hitters.
White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. has been far and away their best slugger, ranking fourth in the majors in home runs (32) and sixth in total bases (246). He homered last night and is slashing .357/.419/.786 over the last two weeks.
Jeimer Candelario has been raking for the Cubs ever since they traded for him at the beginning of the month. He is batting .409 with his new team and has picked up at least one hit in nine of 12 games.
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White Sox vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Cubs opened as -148 home favorites for this showdown and while their starting pitcher has yet to be officially announced (Assad is the most likely option) they have moved to -165. With the wind blowing at around 14 mph towards the outfield at Wrigley today the O/U hit the board at 10.5 or 11 and has stayed steady.
The White Sox edged the Cubs in the series opener last night. Despite that victory, the White Sox have gone just 8-17 in their last 25 games while the Cubs are the mirror opposite going 17-8 in their previous 25.
A big reason for the Cubs success is that they are second in the majors in OPS (.839) since the All-Star break while the Cubs are second-last with an OPS of .662 over the same span.
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Trend to know
The Cubs have hit the game total Over in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+9.65 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Cubs
White Sox vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 16, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSCH, MARQ |
Starting pitchers
Mike Clevinger (5-5, 3.55 ERA): Clevinger looked like an ace earlier in his career but he hasn't been the same since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2020. He had a 4.33 ERA in 114 1/3 innings with the Padres last year and while his ERA is more impressive this season his FIP and expected ERA (both at 4.59) are significantly worse.
However, the veteran righthander is coming off a terrific outing against the Yankees allowing just three hits across six innings of one-run ball.
Javier Assad (2-2, 3.12 ERA): The 26-year-old has worked primarily out of the bullpen this season but has looked good when called upon to start. He has allowed two runs or fewer in five consecutive starts going back to last season and surrendered just four hits and a single run against the Jays last Friday.
That said, Assad projects better as a reliever long-term and his stuff doesn't jump off the page.
