Two of the best the American League Central has to offer square off today in Game 1 of their four-game scheduled series with the Minnesota Twins meeting the Detroit Tigers.
Twins righty Pablo Lopez is listed as the MLB odds underdog when he meets Tigers lefty Tariq Skubal in the early afternoon start.
Can the Twins pull off the upset? Join me as I break this one down with free MLB picks and Twins vs. Tigers predictions for Thursday, April 11.
Twins vs Tigers prediction
My best bet
Carlos Correa Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa is one of the best hitters in baseball and he’s off to a terrific start to his season.
Correa is an exceptional hitter, especially against left-handed pitching. The Twinkies infielder boasts a .477 career slugging percentage and a whopping 138 wRC+ over 1,032 at-bats against southpaws. The Twins shortstop loves to hit four-seam fastballs and he’ll get plenty of those today from Detroit Tigers lefty Tariq Skubal.
Skubal is a big-throwing lefty with one of baseball's best four-seamer, straight-change combos. However, he’s had trouble throughout his career against right-handed batters and the red-hot Correa could do serious damage tonight.
Right-handed hitters have hurt the Tigers ace the most; Skubal has served up 23 home runs with 44 free passes against righties over his career and four earned runs with a pair of bombs against 22 righties faced this season at Comerica Park.
Correa loves the four-seamer and he’s coming into this one hot. He’s battered lefties throughout his career from the visitors’ dugout with 39 extra-base hits and 25 home runs across 648 plate appearances with a 13.4% walk rate and 17% strikeout rate.
Skubal has struggled this season against right-handed batters at home and he won’t be able to blow Correa away with his fastball. Correa boasts a high walk and low strikeout rate, has three multi-hit games this season, and should clear this number.
Twins vs Tigers same-game parlay
Carlos Correa Over 1.5 total bases
Gio Urshela to get a hit
Pablo Lopez 6+ strikeouts
Twins righty Pablo Lopez may appear on paper to be regressing in the strikeout department with 6.39 punchouts per nine; he’ll see an uptick today against the strikeout-prone Tigers — Javier Baez, Parker Meadows, and Spencer Torkelson have 20+% strikeout rates this season against righties and Lopez has six righty punchouts on the road this season.
One Tigers righty Lopez will have trouble with is third-baseman Gio Urshela. The righty has logged a hit in seven of his eight games and is 10-for-20 against right-handed pitching this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Tigers odds
Twins vs Tigers live odds
Twins vs Tigers opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-205) | Detroit -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +130 | Detroit -130
- Over/Under: Over 7 (+100) | Under 7 (-120)
Twins vs Tigers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Money has come in on Detroit, but not enough for a significant change from the -125 opener. Skubal is 7-0 in his last seven starts at Comerica Park and is the likely culprit for the slight movement.
- Over 6.5 markets caused the most movement. We saw money on the Over to temporarily drive it to 7 runs but returned to Over 6.5 (-115) at FanDuel with a consensus Over 7 (+100).
- Under 7 markets have odds ranging from -115 to -125 across the industry.
Twins vs Tigers trend
Carlos Correa has gone Over 1.5 total bases in three of his last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Tigers
Twins vs Tigers game info
| Location: | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Thursday, 4-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North, Bally Sports Detroit |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Pablo Lopez (1-1, 2.84 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Tarik Skubal (1-0, 2.92 ERA) |
Twins vs Tigers latest injuries
Twins vs Tigers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
