The Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins open a series this evening at Comerica Park.
Two shaky pitchers take the mound, making picking a winner a tricky endeavor — but my Tigers vs. Twins predictions have found some value in the prop market.
I break it down as I bring you my MLB picks for Monday, August 4th.
Twins vs Tigers prediction
My Twins vs Tigers best bet: Royce Lewis Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at Caesars)
Relatively speaking, Casey Mize is probably the weak link in the Detroit Tigers' starting rotation.
It’s not that he’s awful, but he stands out negatively, with barrel and hard-hit rates that are below the league average. The barrel rate, in particular, is a sore spot, at nearly 10% on the season. His 3.44 ERA is solid, but the metrics surrounding it loudly state that he gives up too many hard-hit balls.
I like Royce Lewis to exploit that.
Lewis checks all the boxes in a matchup like this, and his advanced metrics scream positive regression for the second half.
His wOBA is .301, but his expected wOBA is significantly higher at .338. Additionally, Lewis fares very well against Mize's two primary pitches - the fastball and splitter. In fact, he’s the only Minnesota Twins player who ranks in the Top 3 in hard-hit rate and Top 5 in batting average against both pitches.
Lewis has no head-to-head history against Mize, but it’s easy to discern he should hold the upper hand. I’d play this to my projection of +105.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Twins vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Royce Lewis Over 1.5 total bases
Kody Clemens RBI
We’ll keep this simple. We like Lewis to find himself in a scoring position, perhaps multiple times tonight. Kody Clemens sits right behind him in the batting order, putting him in the most advantageous position to bring him in. In addition to that, he will also have strong peripherals against Mize.
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Twins vs Tigers odds
Twins vs Tigers live odds
Twins vs Tigers opening odds
- Moneyline: Minnesota +135 | Detroit -161
- Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-161) | Detroit -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-120) | Under 8 (+100)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Twins vs Tigers trend
The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 38 home games (+12.15 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Tigers.
How to watch Twins vs Tigers and game info
| Location | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Monday, 8-4-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MNNT, FDSNDT |
| Twins starting pitcher | TBD |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Casey Mize (9-4, 3.43 ERA) |
Twins vs Tigers latest injuries
Twins vs Tigers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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