The Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins will continue a three-game series tonight in Atlanta, with the Braves listed as -150 favorites in the MLB odds and a total of 9 on the board.
Minnesota faltered in Game 1 of the set last night in a 4-1 defeat. The loss dropped the Twins to just a .500 record in their previous 10 games. For Atlanta, it was business as usual as they continue to cruise. The win gave the Braves their ninth in the last 10 games, including three in a row.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Twins on Tuesday, June 27.
Twins vs Braves odds
Twins vs Braves predictions
It feels like the entirety of the season, the baseball community has been fading Braves pitcher Bryce Elder for expected looming negative regression. For the most part, he's avoided that. I'm giving fading him a go tonight, and one of the best ways to do that is taking his Under 17.5 outs at +100.
Most people reading this likely know the book on Elder by now. He has pretty disappointing metrics, and things like a hard-hit rate near the Bottom 20% of the league stick out like a sore thumb. An expected ERA of 3.77 against an actual one of 2.40 also does. Yet he's able to overcome this. Why? Because of an insane ground ball rate that exceeds 56%, rating him in the genuinely elite category of that metric. But the Twins can win this war, at least enough to where he doesn't go a full six innings.
Minnesota ranks near the bottom of the league in ground ball rate. They have the fifth-lowest ground ball rate in the sport at a clip of 40% and of the highest line drive rates. Elder has been fortunate in that he has yet to see many teams that are good at avoiding the grounder.
He's faced two teams this season who rank in the Bottom 5 in ground ball rate. He met the team who hit the fewest ground balls in the league, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Against them, he allowed one earned run in six innings. That's not precisely a reigning endorsement to taking his Under outs here, but if you look deeper, there's more there. The majority of the hits he gave up had an exit velocity in the triple digits. It could have and should have been much worse, the balls just happened to find the gloves of Braves players on that day.
Elder allowed seven hits in that game — the second-most hits he's allowed in a game this season. The game where he allowed more hits? It came against the Kansas City Royals, who tagged him for eight hits and three earned runs, forcing him to exit midway through the fifth. The Royals are the only other team he's faced this season that ranks in the Bottom 5 of ground ball rate. By any logic, the Twins should be able to put pressure on Elder tonight because of their ability to do the one thing he does exceptionally well.
I'm not here to suggest that Elder gets blown up or even that the Twins win this game (though there is value there). Their ability to get the ball in the air will make this a more stressful outing than the typical one for Elder. Because of that, this number is just too high.
My best bet: Elder Under 17.5 outs (+100)
Twins vs Braves same-game parlay
Elder Under 17.5 outs
Elder Over 5.5 hits allowed
Ryan to record the first strikeout
I want to emphasize that my saying Elder goes Under this number of outs isn't an endorsement of the Twins winning or even Elder getting blown up. It's simply a recognition of him facing a team that does something he hasn't seen much of. I led off our SGP with Elder Under outs and paired it with Over hits. Those two are directly tied together.
Elder allows 7.6 hits per nine innings, so we'll need him to underperform slightly for the hit leg to cash. I expect that to happen because the data tells us it will. He's faced two teams this season ranking in the Bottom 5 in ground ball rate and allowed seven or more hits against each. The Twins will be the third, and its talented offensive lineup will not be the one to break the streak.
The last leg here is one holding value. If the Twins can go the first half of the inning without a strikeout, I feel good about it. Joe Ryan has one of the highest chase rates in the league among any starting pitcher. He pairs that with a heavy dosage of the fastball. Depending on the Braves' lineup, he could see two consecutive hitters with a whiff rate of over 30% against four-seam fastballs this season.
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Twins vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I want to side with the value of the Twins. A moneyline north of +130 is appealing, and the Braves are due for at least slight regression. The matchup between the Twins hitters and Elder is a decent one. However, it's difficult for me to back Ryan tonight. He should have his fair share of strikeouts against a free-swinging Atlanta side. But the balls that are hit? They could be hit very hard.
Ryan throws the fastball nearly 60% of the time, and that's a scary thought against this Atlanta lineup. Ronald Acuna Jr., Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies, and Matt Olson all have exceptional numbers against the fastball and run values near the top of the league. Knowing that one longball could change this game, it's hard to trust the Twins in this spot. With that said, I projected this number at +125, so there is some little value there. But as it stands, it's not playable for me.
As for the total, I will take a sprinkle on the Over 9 at -105. It's for the exact reasons that I've listed above, too. Atlanta will likely break through with a longball at least once tonight against Ryan. Its offensive numbers against the fastball are too impressive for me not to think it happens. On the other side of things, the Twins are uniquely built to pressure Elder, given their ability to avoid the ground ball.
Temps will be in the low 80s with winds carrying out tonight at Truist Park, so there should be no issue with ball carry. The Over is 4-0 in the Twins' last four games following a loss, and 5-0 in Ryan's last five interleague starts.
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Trend to know
The Twins have won just three of their last 13 games against the Braves. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs Braves
Twins vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 27, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Starting pitchers
Joe Ryan (8-4, 2.98 ERA): For my money, Joe Ryan has been one of the more unheralded pitchers in baseball this season. He has a sensational ability to force opponents to chase pitches with a rate in the Top 1% of the league. As you might expect, he pairs that with an impressive strikeout rate as well. Ryan is one of the few baseball pitchers with a strikeout total of over 100 or more, along with a WHIP below 1.00. He'll come into this game off the back of a brilliant complete game where he blanked the Boston Red Sox, allowing just three hits.
Bryce Elder (5-1, 2.40 ERA): Elder has been one of the best ground ball-inducing pitchers in the league this season. His numbers beyond that have reflected poorly, but he's overcome them because of how genuinely elite that aspect of his game is. Elder has been a model of consistency, with just two starts where he has allowed more than three earned runs. He comes into this game off one of the best starts of the season, where he went seven scoreless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies.
