The Detroit Tigers will play their fourth consecutive road game Saturday night in Seattle against the AL West winning Mariners.
Let’s break down a few player props worth targeting with my October 4 MLB picks.
Make sure to also check out our full Tigers vs. Mariners predictions before first pitch!
Tigers vs Mariners Game 1 props
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Kirby Over 6.5 strikeouts |
-125 |
| Naylor Over 0.5 singles |
-105 |
 Greene Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI |
+125 |
Tigers vs Mariners player prop picks
Prop #1: George Kirby Over 6.5 strikeouts
George Kirby pitched a lot better than his surface stats indicated down the stretch. He posted a 5.40 ERA over the last month, which was heavily inflated by unlucky stats.
Opponents hit .424 on balls put in play, nearly .150 points above the approximate average. Only 62.5% of baserunners were stranded, another very unsustainable number.
Positive regression should come for Kirby, who posted a 2.54 FIP, 2.05 xFIP, and 33.7% strikeout rate in that span; all indicators of very strong pitching performance.
The Detroit Tigers struck out in 27.7% of their September at bats vs. right-handed pitchers, the fourth highest total in the league. They are prone to Ks and that should show up against Kirby.
Prop #2: Josh Naylor Over 0.5 singles
Josh Naylor consistently hit singles all year long. He cleared this line in 59% of his appearances and took things up a notch down the stretch, recording one in nine straight to end the regular season.
He should pick up where he left off in this series. He’ll draw Troy Melton out of the gate, who he profiles well against. Melton is a fastball-first pitcher who also works in a lot of cutters. Naylor hit .278 vs. fastballs and .333 against cutters thrown by righties.
Melton probably won’t last more than a couple of Naylor at bats but that’s no cause for concern. Naylor hits for a high average against righties and lefties so he can’t be schemed out of the game.
Not to mention, the Tigers’ bullpen did not perform well in September. There’s no reason Naylor can’t find some success against their relievers.
Prop #3: Riley Greene Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Riley Greene is one of the few Tigers who has produced consistent offense of late. He cleared this line in four of his final six regular season games and built on that in the playoffs, getting the job done in all three games vs. the Guardians.
Overall, he has multiple hits + runs + RBI in seven of his last nine games and has averaged exactly two along the way.
While it can be feast or famine for Greene, who is prone to strikeouts, he might be the most likely bat to make noise against Kirby.
Greene hits righties much better than lefties while Kirby has allowed a lot more production to left-handed hitters. The splits favor Greene. He also recorded a .207 ISO against the fastball and .486 ISO against the slider, Kirby’s two most-used pitches.
How to watch Tigers vs Mariners and Game 1 info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:38 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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