The Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers will open Game 1 of the ALDS tonight.
Although Detroit is coming off the high of a do-or-die Wild Card win against Cleveland, my Tigers vs. Mariners predictions expect George Kirby to silence the Tigers’ bats in front of a raucous Seattle fanbase.
Here are my free MLB picks for Saturday, October 4.
Tigers vs Mariners Game 1 predictions
Who will win Tigers vs Mariners Game 1
I like the Mariners in this spot, given the quick turnaround and the pitching advantage.
The Tigers will view Game 2 as a much better opportunity to grab a win.
Tigers vs Mariners best bet
George Kirby Over 6.5 strikeouts (-125)
This sets up as a strong spot for Seattle Mariners right-hander George Kirby.
The Detroit Tigers were celebrating a road playoff series win on Thursday night and had to fly cross-country to the West Coast less than 24 hours later. On their last West Coast trip of the season, they went from Kansas City to Sacramento to face the Athletics and struck out 11 times, two above their season average.
One game alone isn’t proof, but similar travel spots have produced the same trend across the league, and Detroit hasn’t been an exception. The market accounts for some of this, but not enough — especially considering Kirby’s strikeout lines sat in this same range against comparable whiff-prone opponents all season.
Then there’s the matchup itself.
It’s well known that Kirby is a strikeout arm who consistently grades in the top 20th percentile of the league in K-rate, just like this year.
His breaking arsenal is truly elite: the slider and knuckle curve both generate a strikeout rate north of 35%, and Kirby will line up against as many as five Detroit hitters who sport above-average strikeout rates versus those pitches.
That’s the edge that pushes this play across the line. I’d play this to my fair number of -142.
Tigers vs Mariners Game 1 same-game parlay (SGP)
I think there’s a strong chance Seattle gets to Tigers rookie Troy Melton early.
It’s unclear how deep he’ll last, but the red flags are obvious: a barrel rate and hard-hit rate sitting in the bottom 20th percentile of the league, paired with a mostly two-pitch arsenal. That’s a dangerous profile against this lineup.
Enter Julio Rodriguez.
The Mariners’ star owns elite numbers against both the fastball and the slider — the very pitches that make up over 70% of Melton’s repertoire. It’s a tailor-made matchup.
Tigers vs Mariners SGP
- George Kirby Over 6.5 strikeouts
- Mariners -1.5
- Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 bases
Tigers vs Mariners home run pick for Game 1
Eugenio Suarez (+340)
Almost all Cal Raleigh markets are going to be void of value. I’m inclined to take a shot on Eugenio Suarez here because of that.
We’ve already mentioned Melton’s pitching arsenal, and Suarez boasts the best hard-hit numbers of any Mariner outside of Raleigh against those offerings.
Tigers vs Mariners Game 1 odds
- Moneyline: Detroit +170 | Seattle -210
- Run line: Detroit +1.5 (-130) | Seattle -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-110) | Under 7 (-110)
Tigers vs Mariners trend
Seattle has hit the moneyline in 31 of its last 43 home games (+15.70 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Mariners.
How to watch Tigers vs Mariners and Game 1 info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:38 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Troy Melton (3-2, 2.76 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | George Kirby (10-8, 4.21 ERA) |
Tigers vs Mariners latest injuries
Tigers vs Mariners weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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