It’s fitting that on the first day of October, a trio of teams will face elimination. It starts when the Detroit Tigers face off with the Cleveland Guardians in Game Two of the AL Wild Card series this afternoon.
My Tigers vs. Guardians predictions favor the huge pitching advantage of the Guardians.
I break it all down in my free MLB picks for Wednesday, October 1
Tigers vs Guardians Game 1 predictions
Who will win Tigers vs Guardians Game 1?
This is going three games, and I’m backing Cleveland to get the win. The Guardians boast a strong pitching edge, given the Tigers' offensive struggles.
Tigers vs Guardians best bet
Guardians moneyline (-125)
You can make a strong case that the Cleveland Guardians lost the game more than the Detroit Tigers won it yesterday, but that would be a disservice to Tarik Skubal.
The presumptive Cy Young winner delivered one of his best performances of the season, piling up an eye-popping 14 strikeouts in just over seven innings. Even so, Cleveland still had a runner on third with no outs in the bottom of the ninth, trailing by a single run.
Instead of opting for small-ball, they went for the big swing, and the rest was history: a 2–1 loss. Still, the fact that they had a chance despite Skubal’s dominance makes a strong argument for backing them today.
The Tigers’ offense sputtered to close the season. Over their final ten games, they averaged the seventh-fewest runs per game in the majors, struggling to generate consistent offense. That won’t get easier against Tanner Bibee. The Guardians’ young right-hander has excelled at limiting hard contact, ranking in the 80th percentile in hard-hit rate. Detroit’s bats simply don’t profile as the type to string together multiple hits and manufacture runs against that kind of contact management.
With that in mind, this projects as another low-scoring battle where Cleveland capitalizes on a few timely hits while Detroit continues to struggle. My play is on the Guardians at up to -138.
Tigers vs Guardians home run pick for Game 1
Based upon what he’s done this season in this matchup, I expect Tigers hurler Casey Mize to lean mostly on his split-finger. It makes up almost 25% of his pitching arsenal, and it’s a pitch he’s quite comfortable with. That means there’s some value for Bo Naylor to go deep, as he leads all active postseason Guardians in hard-hit rate against such pitches and has already homered off Mize once this year.
Tigers vs Guardians Game 1 odds
- Moneyline: Detroit +105 | Cleveland -125
- Run line: Detroit +1.5 (-235) | Cleveland -1.5 (+180)
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Tigers vs Guardians trend
The Guardians have won five of the last seven head-to-head matchups between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Guardians.
How to watch Tigers vs Guardians and Game 1 info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Wednesday, October 1, 2025 |
| First pitch | 1:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Casey Mize (14-6, 3.67 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Tanner Bibee (12-11, 4.24 ERA) |
Tigers vs Guardians latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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