It was a winning day here yesterday for +1.7 units, and there are plenty of pitcher and MLB player props on tonight's shorter slate.
Despite a 14-strikeout performance in his last start and numbers that stack up with some of the best in baseball, Payton Tolle's K total still isn't as high as it should be. Jacob deGrom could be dealing with an innings cap, making his Over a tough climb, and Roki Sasaki might finally be turning a corner with his outs market on the rise.
These are my favorite pitcher strikeout props and MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 13.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Payton Tolle |
Over 5.5 strikeouts | -111 |
 Jacob deGrom |
Under 6.5 strikeouts | +101 |
 Roki Sasaki |
Over 16.5 outs | +101 |
Strikeout prop: Payton Tolle Over 5.5 strikeouts (-115)
I hate backing a pitcher after a monster game, and Payton Tolle is coming off a career-best 14-strikeout outing. However, even with his 90-pitch leash, 48% of his outs since June 26 have come via the strikeout. He has the third-highest K/9 over that stretch and the fourth-best K% behind some heavy hitters in Dylan Cease and Jacob Misiorowski.
He has shown he can get to this Over even on abbreviated outings, and the Over is a perfect 6-0 on this total over his last six starts.
The Jays aren't a K-heavy team, but their strikeout rate has climbed of late, and this lineup could have five hitters with a K% of 25% or higher this month.
The juice is moving on this Over despite the projections liking the Under. This could close at -135/-140, and I'd buy it down to -120/-125.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, NESN
Strikeout prop: Jacob deGrom Under 6.5 strikeouts (+101)
The Texas Rangers are keeping the lid on Jacob deGrom, and getting to seven punchouts is going to be damn hard.
The veteran right-hander might have a 15-out cap on him, as he has not gotten over that number in five straight starts. He was at just 88 pitches after five innings in his last game and didn't come back out. To me, that sounds like a blueprint for an oft-injured pitcher the Rangers need healthy if they are going to make the playoffs.
The throttle started in July, and since then, he has 29 Ks in 23 innings. However, he has gone Over this total just twice in five starts and has thrown 88, 91, 90, 97, and 80 pitches. He's going to have to be mighty efficient to get seven of his 15 outs via the K.
At plus money on the Under, the risk is low to see if he has an innings cap. I'm betting this down to -115.
- Time: 10:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, Rangers Sports Network
Pitcher out prop: Roki Sasaki Over 16.5 outs recorded (+101)
The market is moving heavily toward this Over, and I wouldn't be surprised if it closed at 17.5.
Roki Sasaki, the roller-coaster Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher, has gone four straight starts allowing two or fewer runs, which is his best four-game stretch of the season. He's a K-per-inning guy who doesn't allow many hits. Command can be an issue, but pitching on his own mound is always an advantage.
When Sasaki is on, it's a beautiful thing, and I think the market moving toward the Over, coupled with his recent form, makes this the right side at this price and down to -115. The Milwaukee Brewers offense has hit a lull and ranks in the Bottom 10 this month, which only helps.
Sasaki's arrow is pointing up, and we're taking advantage.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet LA, Brewers.TV.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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