There are only 10 teams in action today, but there are still some hurlers worth putting our money on, with multiple MLB player props showing value.
Shane Bieber might get hit around, but he will have a great leash. Brandon Pfaadt doesn't miss bats and is an Under candidate, and Ian Seymour has plenty of outs for his walk prop.
These are my favorite MLB strikeout props for Thursday, July 23.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Shane Bieber |
Over 4.5 strikeouts | +125 |
 Brandon Pfaadt |
Under 3.5 strikeouts | -111 |
 Ian Seymour |
Over 1.5 walks allowed | +115 |
Strikeout prop: Shane Bieber Over 4.5 strikeouts (+125)
I have a lot of exposure to the Tampa offense today, but Shane Bieber getting extended might be the sneaky angle. His projected pitch count around 90 is already showing some value on the Over punchouts.
Bieber has been getting hit hard, but the recent strikeout numbers are encouraging with 10 Ks over his last 10+ innings.
He can still be a strikeout-per-inning pitcher when the stuff is there, and he has already reached 97 pitches in one of his five starts this season. A six-inning leash is very realistic. He still owns a 27% CSW rate over some rocky outings.
The Rays are heading home, creating a getaway-game angle that should help Bieber. He is also much tougher on left-handed hitters, and Toronto's only available lefty out of the bullpen is Brendon Little and his 17.61 ERA.
The Blue Jays also used six relievers last night, which only increases the chance Bieber gets every opportunity to work deep.
Do I think Bieber can get hit? Yes. Do I think he has enough leash to reach six innings and strike out five at plus money? Also yes.
If the stuff is there, this could cash comfortably. If he gets hit, the volume still gives him a chance. I'm playing this to +100.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, Sportsnet
Strikeout prop: Brandon Pfaadt Under 3.5 strikeouts (-111)
Brandon Pfaadt is the definition of a pitch-to-contact starter. He is averaging just half a strikeout per inning this season and rarely gets to those deep two-strike counts needed to pile up Ks.
Nick Martinez leads MLB in pitches per plate appearance among qualified starters at 3.5, but Pfaadt isn't far behind at 3.6. He is not one of the league leaders in making hitters work, and that doesn't translate into strikeouts.
His K/9 ranks in the Bottom 25 among MLB starters, and his Bottom 15th percentile whiff rate is nothing to chase.
The innings can be misleading because Pfaadt gets deep by letting hitters put the ball in play early, not by overpowering them. The projections show value on his Under 3.5 strikeouts, but they are based on a 91-pitch workload that feels aggressive.
Pfaadt has thrown 87, 77, and 72 pitches over his last three starts and hasn't recorded more than 16 outs in any of them. I'm playing the Under 3.5 Ks down to -120.
- Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, DBACKS.TV
Walks allowed prop: Ian Seymour Over 1.5 walks allowed (+115)
Ian Seymour has not gotten deep over his last two starts, throwing 61 and 78 pitches, but he has hit this Over in both of those games.
His control away from the Trop is also favorable, as his BB/9 on the road sits at 4.8 vs. 2.6 at home. That's 11 walks in 18 road innings.
Toronto might not be the best BB% team in baseball, but this offense is more than struggling and has to see pitches today vs. a struggling pitcher with control issues.
THE BAT is projecting 85 pitches and 1.74 walks, making the break-even price around -115/-120.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, Sportsnet
- Prop picks: 4-5, -1.23 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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